3.1 Kuyamba

Ofufuza omwe amaphunzira dolphin sangathe kuwafunsa mafunso ndipo motero amakakamizidwa kuti aphunzire za dolphins mwa kuyang'ana khalidwe lawo. Ofufuza omwe amafufuza anthu, amakhala ndi zosavuta: omvera awo akhoza kulankhula. Kuyankhula ndi anthu chinali gawo lofunika la kafukufuku wamagulu m'mbuyomu, ndipo ndikuyembekeza kuti lidzakhalanso mtsogolo.

Mu kafukufuku wamakhalidwe a anthu, kulankhula ndi anthu nthawi zambiri kumatenga mitundu iwiri: kufufuza ndi zokambirana zakuya. Kuyankhula mwachidule, kafufuzidwe pogwiritsa ntchito kufufuza kumaphatikizapo kulandira mwachindunji anthu ambiri, mafunso okonzedwa bwino, ndi kugwiritsa ntchito njira zowerengera kuti zikhale ndi anthu ambiri. Kafukufuku wogwiritsira ntchito mozama, amafunsanso ophunzira ochepa, zokambirana zokhazikika, ndipo zotsatira zake zimakhala zolemera, zomwe zimapangitsa ophunzirawo kukhala oyenerera. Kafufuzidwe ndi kuyankhulana kwakukulu ndi njira zamphamvu, koma kufufuza kumakhudzidwa kwambiri ndi kusintha kuchokera ku analog mpaka zaka za digito. Kotero, mu mutu uwu, ine ndikuganizira za kafukufuku wopenda.

Monga momwe ndisonyezera mu chaputala chino, zaka za digito zimapanga mwayi wochuluka wofufuza kafukufuku kuti asonkhanitse deta mwamsanga komanso mopanda phindu, kufunsa mafunso osiyanasiyana, ndikukulitsa kufunika kwa deta yofufuza ndi zida zazikulu za deta. Lingaliro lakuti kafufuzidwe kafukufuku ingasinthidwe ndi kusintha kwa sayansi sizatsopano, komabe. Chakumapeto kwa 1970, kusintha komweku kunayendetsedwa ndi zipangizo zamakono zolankhulana: telefoni. Mwamwayi, kumvetsa momwe telefoni inasinthira kafukufuku wofufuza angatithandize kulingalira momwe zaka za digito zidzasinthira kufufuza kafukufuku.

Kafukufuku wofufuza, monga tikulizindikira lero, anayamba mu 1930. Pa nthawi yoyamba ya kafufuzidwe kafukufuku, ochita kafukufuku amatha kusonyeza malo ammudzi (monga mizinda) ndikupita kumadera amenewa kuti akambirane ndi anthu omwe ali ndi mabanja omwe sanagwiritsidwe ntchito. Kenaka, chitukuko cha sayansi-kufalikira kwa mafoni apadziko lapansi m'mayiko olemera-pamapeto pake kunadzetsa nthawi yachiwiri yopenda kafukufuku. Nthawi yachiwiri iyi inasiyana mosiyana ndi momwe anthu adasinthidwira komanso momwe kukambirana kunachitikira. M'nthaŵi yachiwiri, m'malo mochepetsera mabanja m'madera ena, ofufuza mwachindunji adasankha nambala za telefoni mwa njira yotchedwa kujambula kwa manambala . Ndipo m'malo moyendayenda kulankhula ndi anthu maso ndi maso, m'malo mwake ochita kafukufuku anawaitana pa telefoni. Izi zingawoneke ngati kusintha kochepa, komabe iwo adafufuza kafukufuku mofulumira, wotchipa, komanso osasintha. Kuwonjezera pa kulimbikitsa mphamvu, kusinthaku kunalinso kutsutsana chifukwa ochita kafukufuku ambiri ankadandaula kuti njira zatsopano zowonetsera komanso zoyankhulana zingayambitse zosokoneza zosiyanasiyana. Koma potsiriza, atapita ntchito zambiri, ofufuza anapeza momwe angasamalire deta mosamala pogwiritsa ntchito kujambula kwa manambala osasintha ndi kuyankhulana kwa foni. Motero, pofufuza mmene angagwiritsire ntchito zipangizo zamakono zamakono, akatswiri atha kufufuza momwe anachitira kafukufuku.

Tsopano, chitukuko china chitukuko-zaka za digito-chidzatibweretsa ife ku nthawi yachitatu ya kufufuza kafukufuku. Kusintha kumeneku kumayendetsedwa mwachidule ndi kuwonongeka kwapang'onopang'ono kwa kayendedwe ka nthawi yachiwiri (BD Meyer, Mok, and Sullivan 2015) . Mwachitsanzo, chifukwa cha zipangizo zamakono ndi chikhalidwe, anthu osayamika-ndiko kuti, chiwerengero cha anthu omwe sagwirizane nawo-akhala akuwonjezeka kwa zaka zambiri (National Research Council 2013) . Zomwe zimakhalapo nthawi yaitali zikutanthawuza kuti chiwerengero cha nonresponse chikhoza kupitirira 90% mwa kufufuza kachitidwe ka foni (Kohut et al. 2012) .

Kumbali ina, kusintha kwa nthawi yachitatu kumayendetsedwanso mwa magawo atsopano osangalatsa, ena omwe ndiwafotokoze m'mutu uno. Ngakhale kuti zinthu sizinachitike, ndikuyembekeza kuti kafukufuku wofufuza kafukufukuyo adzawonetsedwa ngati sitingathe kusanthula, kuyankhulana ndi makompyuta, komanso kuyankhulana kwadongosolo lalikulu (table 3.1).

Table 3.1: Eras Three ya Survey Research Based on Groves (2011)
Sampling Kufunsa Chilengedwe
Nthawi yoyamba Zotsatira zopezeka m'deralo Maso ndi maso Kufufuza-okha
Nthawi yachiwiri Kujambulidwa kwa majambuli-maulendo (RDD) zowonjezera zitsanzo Telefoni Kufufuza-okha
Nthawi yachitatu Zosatheka kukhala zitsanzo Kugwiritsa ntchito makompyuta Kafukufuku wogwirizana ndi magwero aakulu a deta

Kusintha pakati pa kafukufuku wopitiliza kafukufuku wazaka ziwiri ndi wachitatu sikunayende bwino, ndipo pakhala mikangano yoopsa yokhudza momwe akatswiri ayenera kukhalira. Ndikuyang'ana mmbuyo pa kusintha pakati pa mapepala oyambirira ndi achiwiri, ndikuganiza kuti pali chidziwitso chimodzi chofunikira kwa ife tsopano: chiyambi si mapeto . Izi zikutanthauza kuti njira zamakono zoyambira pa telefoni zinkakhala zovuta kwambiri ndipo sizinagwire ntchito bwino. Koma, pogwira ntchito mwakhama, ofufuza anawathetsa mavutowa. Mwachitsanzo, ochita kafukufuku akhala akuchita zojambulira ma diyeteri kwa zaka zambiri nkhondo isanayambe Warren Mitofsky ndi Joseph Waksberg akugwiritsa ntchito njira zojambulira ma dijito zomwe zinali ndi ntchito zabwino komanso zolemba (Waksberg 1978; ??? ) . Kotero, sitiyenera kusokoneza momwe zinthu zilili masiku ano ndi zotsatira zawo.

Mbiri ya kafufuzidwe kafukufuku imasonyeza kuti munda umasintha, motsogoleredwa ndi kusintha kwa sayansi ndi anthu. Palibe njira yothetsera chisinthiko. M'malo mwake, tifunikira kuigwiritsa ntchito, pamene tikupitiriza kulandira nzeru kuchokera kumayambiriro akale, ndipo ndi njira yomwe ndidzatengere m'mutu uno. Choyamba, ndikutsutsa kuti zidziwitso zazikuluzikulu sizidzabwezeretsa kafukufuku ndi kuti kuchuluka kwazomwe zidziwitso zikuwonjezeka-sikuchepetsa-kufunika kwa kufufuza (gawo 3.2). Chifukwa chaichi, ndikufotokozera mwachidule ndondomeko yolakwika yafukufuku (gawo 3.3) lomwe linapangidwa pa nthawi yoyamba yofufuza kafukufuku. Izi zimatithandiza kumvetsetsa njira zatsopano zowunikira-makamaka, zopanda mwayi (gawo 3.4) -ndi njira zatsopano zowunikira-makamaka njira zatsopano zoperekera mafunso kwa omwe akufunsidwa (gawo 3.5). Potsirizira pake, ndifotokozera zizindikiro ziwiri zofufuzira zogwirizanitsa deta yowunikira ku zigawo zazikulu za deta (gawo 3.6).