3.1 Isingeniso

Abacwaningi abahlola amahlengethwa abakwazi ukubabuza imibuzo ngakho-ke baphoqeleka ukuba bazame ukufunda ngamahlengethwa ngokubheka ukuziphatha kwabo. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, abacwaningi abacwaninga abantu, bakwenza kube lula: abaphendulayo bangakhuluma. Ukukhuluma nabantu kwakuyingxenye ebalulekile yokucwaninga kwezenhlalo esikhathini esidlule, futhi ngilindele ukuthi kuzoba esikhathini esizayo futhi.

Ecwaningweni yomphakathi, ukukhuluma nabantu ngokuvamile kuthatha izinhlobo ezimbili: ukuhlola kanye nezingxoxo ezijulile. Ukukhuluma ngokucwaninga, ukucwaninga usebenzisa ukuhlola kuhilela ukuqashwa okuhleliwe kwezinamba eziningi zabahlanganyeli, imibuzo ehlelwe kahle, nokusetshenziswa kwezindlela zokubala ezivela kubahlanganyeli ukuya emphakathini omkhulu. Ukucwaninga ngokusebenzisa izinkhulumomphendvulwano ezijulile, ngakolunye uhlangothi, kuhilela inani elincane labahlanganyeli, izingxoxo ezihleliwe, kanye nemiphumela enencazelo ecebile, enembile yabahlanganyeli. Ukuhlola kanye nokuxoxwa okujulile kuzo zombili izindlela ezinamandla, kodwa ukuhlolwa kuthinteka kakhulu ekushintsheni kusuka ku-analog kuya esikhathini se-digital. Ngakho-ke, kulesahluko, ngizogxila ekucwaningweni kocwaningo.

Njengoba ngizobonisa kulesahluko, iminyaka yedijithali yenza amathuba amaningi okuthakazelisa abacwaningi bokuhlola ukuqoqa idatha ngokushesha futhi eshibhile, ukubuza izinhlobo ezahlukene zemibono, nokukhulisa inani lemininingwane yokuhlola ngemithombo emikhulu yedatha. Umqondo wokuthi ucwaningo lokucwaninga lungashintshwa ngushintsho lwezobuchwepheshe akulona olusha, noma kunjalo. Cishe ngo-1970, ushintsho olufanayo lwaluqhutshelwa yizobuchwepheshe obuhlukahlukene bokuxhumana: ucingo. Ngenhlanhla, ukuqonda ukuthi ucingo lushintshe kanjani ucwaningo lokucwaninga lungasisiza sicabange ukuthi i-digital age izoshintsha kanjani ucwaningo lokuhlola.

Ucwaningo lokuhlola, njengoba sikuqaphela namuhla, lwaqala ngawo-1930. Ngenkathi yokuqala yokucwaninga kocwaningi, abacwaningi babezohlala ezindaweni zesampula (njengamabhuloki wedolobha) bese beya kulezo zindawo ukuze baxoxisane ubuso nobuso nabantu emindenini engahleliwe. Khona-ke, ukuthuthukiswa kwezobuchwepheshe-ukusabalalisa okuvamile kwamafoni asemhlabeni emazweni acebile-ekugcineni kwaholela esikhathini sesibili socwaningo lokuhlola. Le nkathi yesibili yayihluke kokubili indlela abantu abaye bathathwa ngayo futhi nokuthi izingxoxo zenzeka kanjani. Ngenkathi yesibili, kunokuba isampuli imindeni ezindaweni, abacwaningi bahlaziye ngezikhathi izinombolo zocingo kwinqubo ebizwa ngokuthi ukudayela okungahleliwe . Futhi esikhundleni sokuhamba ukukhuluma nabantu ubuso nobuso, abacwaningi bababizela ocingweni. Lokhu kungase kubonakale sengathi kunguquko ezincane zokungena, kodwa benza ucwaningo lwezocwaningo ngokushesha, eshibhile, futhi luguquguquke kakhulu. Ngaphandle kokunika amandla, lezi zinguquko nazo zaziphikisana ngoba abacwaningi abaningi babekhathazekile ngokuthi lezi zinqubo ezintsha zokutadisha nezokuxoxisana zingakwazi ukwethula ukuhlukahluka okuhlukahlukene. Kodwa ekugcineni, ngemva kwemisebenzi eminingi, abacwaningi bacabanga indlela yokuqoqa idatha ngokuthembekile ngokusebenzisa ukudayela kwamadijithi okungahleliwe kanye nezingxoxo zocingo. Ngakho-ke, ngokuqaphela indlela yokusebenza ngempumelelo ingqalasizinda yomphakathi, abacwaningi bakwazi ukuvuselela ukuthi benze kanjani ucwaningo lokucwaninga.

Manje, olunye ukuthuthukiswa kwezobuchwepheshe-i-digital age-ekugcineni kuyosiyisa esikhathini sesithathu socwaningo lokucwaninga. Lokhu kuguqulwa kuqhutshwa ngokuyingxenye ngokulimala kancane kancane kwezinqubo zesigaba sesibili (BD Meyer, Mok, and Sullivan 2015) . Isibonelo, ngezizathu ezihlukahlukene zezobuchwepheshe nezenhlalakahle, izinga lokungahloniphi-okungukuthi, inani labantu abathintekayo abangahlanganyeli ekuhloliseni-selukhulile iminyaka eminingi (National Research Council 2013) . Lezi zindlela zesikhathi eside zisho ukuthi izinga lokungahloniphi manje lingadlulela ku-90% ekuhloleni okujwayelekile kwefoni (Kohut et al. 2012) .

Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukuguqulwa kwenkathi yesithathu kuqhutshwa ngokuyingxenye ngamathuba amasha amnandi, ezinye zazo engizozichaza kule sahluko. Nakuba izinto zingakahlelwa, ngilindele ukuthi inkathi yesithathu yophenyo lokucwaninga izothathwa ngesampula okungenakwenzeka, izingxoxo ezilawulwa yikhompiyutha, nokuhlanganiswa kokuhlola kwimithombo emikhulu yedatha (ithebula 3.1).

Ithebula 3.1: Eras Three Survey Research Kususelwa Groves (2011)
Isampuli Ukuxoxa Imvelo yedatha
Inkathi yokuqala Isampula esingahle senzeke Ubuso nobuso Imibuzo yokuma yedwa
Inkathi yesibili Ukudayela okungahleliwe kwamadijithi okungahleliwe (RDD) Ifoni Imibuzo yokuma yedwa
Inkathi yesithathu Isampula esingenakwenzeka Ukuphathwa kwekhompyutha Ukuhlola okuhlobene nemithombo emikhulu yedatha

Ukushintsha phakathi kwe-second and third eras zocwaningo zophenyo akuzange kube bushelelezi, futhi sekube nezingxabano ezinzima mayelana nokuthi abacwaningi kufanele baqhubeke kanjani. Uma ngibheka emuva ekushintsheni phakathi kwe-first and second eras, ngicabanga ukuthi kukhona ukuqonda okuyisihluthulelo esisodwa manje: ukuqala akusiyo ukuphela . Okokuqala, izindlela eziningi ezisekelwe efonini yenkathi yesibili zaziyi-ad hoc futhi azizange zisebenze kahle. Kodwa, ngokusebenza kanzima, abacwaningi basombulula lezi zinkinga. Isibonelo, abacwaningi bebelokhu benza ukudayela kwamadijithi okungahleliwe iminyaka eminingi ngaphambi kokuba iWarren Mitofsky noJoseph Waksberg bathathe uhlelo lokusatshalaliswa kwedijithali lokungahleliwe okwakunezici ezinhle ezisebenzayo kanye nezakhiwo (Waksberg 1978; ??? ) . Ngakho-ke, akufanele sidibanise isimo samanje sezinkathi zenkathi yesithathu nemiphumela yabo evelele.

Umlando wokucwaningwa kocwaningi kubonisa ukuthi insimu iguqukela, iqhutshwa yizinguquko kwezobuchwepheshe kanye nomphakathi. Ayikho indlela yokuyeka ukuthi ukuziphendukela kwemvelo. Kunalokho, kufanele siyamukele, ngenkathi siqhubeka nokudweba ukuhlakanipha kusuka emazweni angaphambili, futhi yileyo ndlela engizoyithatha kule sahluko. Okokuqala, ngizophikisana ngokuthi imithombo emikhulu yedatha ngeke ithathe indawo yokuhlola futhi ukuthi inqwaba yemithombo enkulu yedatha iyanda-ayinciphisi-ukubaluleka kokuhlola (isigaba 3.2). Njengoba kunikezwe lokho okugqugquzelayo, ngizofingqa uhlaka lwesiphambeko sokuhlola (isigaba 3.3) esakhiwe ngesikhathi sokuqala kocwaningo lwezocwaningo. Loluhlaka lusivumela ukuba siqonde izindlela ezintsha zokumelwa-ikakhulukazi, amasampula angenakwenzeka (isigaba 3.4) -nendlela entsha yokulinganisa-ikakhulukazi, izindlela ezintsha zokubuza imibuzo kubaphenduli (isigaba 3.5). Ekugcineni, ngizochaza izifanekiso ezimbili zokucwaninga zokuxhumanisa idatha yocwaningo kumithombo emikhulu yedatha (isigaba 3.6).