3.1 Intshayelelo

Abaphandi abahlola iidonphin abanakuzibuza imibuzo kwaye ngoko ke banyanzelekile ukuba bazame ukufunda ngamahlengethwa ngokujonga indlela abaziphatha ngayo. Abaphandi abaphonononga abantu, ngakolunye uhlangothi, kulula ukuba: abaphenduli babo bangathetha. Ukuthetha nabantu kwakuyinxenye ebalulekileyo yophando loluntu kwixesha elidlulileyo, kwaye ndikulindele ukuba kuya kuba nakwixesha elizayo.

Kuphando loluntu, ukuthetha nabantu kuthatha iifom ezimbini: uphando kunye nodliwano-ndlebe olunzulu. Ukuthetha ngokuphandle, uphando olusebenzisa uphando luquka ukuqeshwa ngokucwangcisiweyo kwamanani amaninzi abathathi-nxaxheba, imibuzo ehleliweyo, kunye nokusetyenziswa kweendlela zokubala ukuba kubandakanyeke kubathathi-nxaxheba ukuya kubemi abaninzi. Uphando usebenzisa i-intanethi enzulu, ngandlela-thile, ngokubanzi kubandakanye inani elincinci labathathi-nxaxheba, iingxoxo ezidibeneyo, kunye neziphumo kwisityebi, inkcazo yemfanelo yabathathi-nxaxheba. Uphando kunye noononophelo olunzulu oludityanisiweyo unxibelelwano lweendlela ezinamandla, kodwa uphando luye lwachaphazela kakhulu utshintsho oluvela kwi-analog ukuya kwixesha ledijithali. Ngoko, kule sahluko, ndiya kugxininisa uphando lophando.

Njengoko ndiza kubonisa kule sahluko, ubudala bedijithali budala amathuba amaninzi athabathekileyo kubaphandi bezononophelo ukuqokelela idatha ngokukhawuleza nangokuthengisa, ukubuza iintlobo ezahlukeneyo zeemibuzo, nokuphakamisa ixabiso leenkcukacha zophando kunye nemithombo yolwazi emikhulu. Ingcamango yokuba uphando lophando lunokuguqulwa ngenguqu lwezobuchwepheshe alukho elitsha, nangona kunjalo. Ekubeni ngo-1970, utshintsho olufanayo luqhutyelwa ngeteknoloji yonxibelelwano eyahlukeneyo: umnxeba. Ngethamsanqa, ukuqonda indlela umnxeba utshintshe uphando lophando lunokusinceda ukuba sicinge ngendlela yobudala bedijithali obuya kutshintshwa uphando lophando.

Uphando lophando, njengoko siliqonda namhlanje, lwaqala ngowe-1930. Ngexesha lokuqala lophando lophando, abaphandi babeza kusasaza iindawo zendawo (njengezibhloko zedolophu) baze batyelele kule mimandla ukuze baxoxe ubuso nobuso nabantu abasemakhaya athile. Emva koko, uphuhliso lwezobuchwepheshe-ukusabalalisa ngokubanzi kweefowuni zomhlaba kumazwe anotyebi-ekugqibeleni kwakhokelela kwikota yesibini yophando lophando. Eli xesha le sibini lahluke kwindlela abantu abaye batyathwa ngayo kunye nendlela abaxoxa ngayo. Ngexesha le sibini, kunokuba iindlu zeempendulo zemihlaba kwiindawo zendawo, abaphandi baye bathatha isampula ngokukhawuleza iinombolo zocingo kwinkqubo ebizwa ngokuba yi -dial-digit dialing . Kwaye kunokuba bahambe baxoxe nabantu babhekane nobuso, abaphandi bambi bawabiza ngomnxeba. Ezi zinokubonakala zifana neenguqu ezincinane zokuguquka, kodwa zenze uphando lophando ngokukhawuleza, oluthile kwaye luguquguqukayo. Ukongezelela ekunikeni amandla, oku kutshintshwa kwabakho mpikiswano kuba abaninzi abaphandi babekhathazekile ukuba le nkqubo entsha kunye neenkqubo zodliwano-ndlebe zingakwazi ukuvelisa iintlobo ezahlukeneyo. Kodwa ekugqibeleni, emva kobuninzi bomsebenzi, abaphandi baqikelele indlela yokuqokelela idatha ngokuthembekileyo ngokusebenzisa ukutsalwa kwedijithi ye-random kunye nodliwano-dliwano lwefoni. Ngaloo ndlela, ngokucwangcisa indlela yokuphumelela ngempumelelo ingqalasizinda yezobugcisa, uluntu luye lwaba luncedo lokwenza uphando olwenziwe ngophando.

Ngoku, olunye uphuhliso lwezobuchwepheshe-i-digital age-ekugqibeleni iya kusizisa kwikota yesithathu yophando lophando. Olu tshintsho luqhutyelwa ngenye inxalenye yokubola kweendlela zesibini (BD Meyer, Mok, and Sullivan 2015) . Ngokomzekelo, ngenxa yezizathu ezahlukeneyo zobuchwepheshe kunye nezentlalo, amaxabiso angenanto-oko kukuthi, inani labantu abathathi-nxaxheba abangabandakanyekanga kuphando-luye landa iminyaka emininzi (National Research Council 2013) . Ezi zihlandlo zangexesha elide kuthetha ukuba ixabiso lokungabi nantoni linokudlulela kwi-90% kwimilinganiselo yefoni yomgangatho (Kohut et al. 2012) .

Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukutshintshwa kwenkathi yesithathu kuqhutyelwa inxalenye ngamathuba amnandi amatsha, enye endiza kuyichaza kwesi sahluko. Nangona izinto zingakagqitywanga, ndilindele ukuba ixesha lesithathu lophando lophando luza kubonakaliswa ngamanqaku angabonakaliyo, i-intanethi elawulwa ngodliwano-ndlebe kunye nokuhlanganiswa kophando kwimithombo yolwazi emikhulu (itafile 3.1).

Itheyibhile 3.1: I-Eras emithathu yoPhando loPhando olusekelwe kwii Groves (2011)
Sampling Udliwano-ndlebe Indawo yolwazi
Ixesha lokuqala Ummandla wesampula Ubuso ngobuso Imibuzo yokuzimela
I sibini Ukutsalwa kwee-Random-digit (RDD) isampula Ifowuni Imibuzo yokuzimela
Kwixesha lesithathu Isampula esingenakwenzeka Ulawulo lwekhompyutha Uphando olunxulumene nemithombo yolwazi emikhulu

Utshintsho phakathi kweyesibili kunye neyesithathu zophando zophando aluzange lube lula, kwaye kukho iingxoxo ezigwenxa malunga nendlela abaphandi kufuneka baqhubeke ngayo. Xa ndijonga emva kwenguqu phakathi kweyure yokuqala neyesibini, ndicinga ukuba kukho ingqiqo eyodwa ebalulekileyo ngoku: isiqalo asiyikuphela . Okokuthi, ekuqaleni iinkqubo ezininzi zenkxaso-fowuni zenkxaso yesibini zaye zazingasebenzi kakuhle. Kodwa, ngokusebenza nzima, abaphandi bazisombulula ezi ngxaki. Ngokomzekelo, abaphandi bebenokudibanisa idijithi ye-random kwiminyaka emininzi ngaphambi kokuba iWarren Mitofsky noJoseph Waksberg bavelise indlela yokuchonga idijithali engabonakaliyo eneendlela ezintle ezisebenzayo kunye (Waksberg 1978; ??? ) . Ngaloo ndlela, akufanele sidibanise imeko ekhoyo yangoku yesithathu kunye neziphumo zabo ezigqwesileyo.

Imbali yophando lophando ibonisa ukuba intsimi iguquka, iqhutyelwa yiinguqu kwezobugcisa kunye noluntu. Akukho ndlela yokumisa ukuba ukuziphendukela kwemvelo. Kunoko, simele siwamukele, ngelixa sisaqhubeka nokufumana ubulumko kwiiyure zangaphambili, kwaye yile ndlela ndiza kuyithatha kule sahluko. Okokuqala, ndiza kuthetha ukuba imithombo yolwazi emikhulu ayiyi kuthatha indawo yophando kunye nokuba ubuninzi bemithombo yamandla eninzi banda-kungekhona ukunciphisa-ukubaluleka kovavanyo (icandelo 3.2). Njengoko i-motivation, ndiya kufingqa isakhelo sophando lwesebe (isahluko 3.3) esaphuhlisiwe ngexesha lokuqala koluphando lophando. Esi sikhokelo senza sikwazi ukuqonda iindlela ezintsha zokumelwa-ngokukodwa, iisampuli ezingenakwenzeka (icandelo 3.4) -neendlela ezintsha zokulinganisa-ngokukodwa, iindlela ezintsha zokubuza imibuzo kubaphenduli (icandelo 3.5). Ekugqibeleni, ndiza kuchaza iipatlathi ezimbini zophando zokudibanisa idatha yenkwenkwezi kwimithombo emikhulu yolwazi (icandelo 3.6).