4.2 Ziyini kwenziwa ucwaningo?

Randomized kocwaningo babe izithako ezine eziyinhloko: ukunxenxa ababambiqhaza, eqenjini lokwelashwa, ukulethwa ukwelashwa, kanye nesilinganiso nemiphumela.

Ukuhlolwa okulawulwe ngokungahleliwe kunezithako ezine eziyinhloko: ukuqashwa kwabahlanganyeli, ukwelashwa okungahleliwe, ukulethwa ukwelashwa nokulinganisa kwemiphumela. Isikhathi sedijithali asishintshi uhlobo oluyisisekelo lokuhlolwa, kodwa lwenza kube lula ngokwengqondo. Isibonelo, esikhathini esidlule, kungenzeka kube nzima ukulinganisa ukuziphatha kwezigidi zabantu, kodwa manje lokho kwenzeka njalo ezinkambisweni eziningi zedijithali. Abacwaningi abangakwazi ukuthola ukuthi bangasebenzisa kanjani lamathuba amasha bazokwazi ukuqhuba izivivinyo ezingenakwenzeka ngaphambilini.

Ukuze wenze lokhu konke ukukhonjwa okuningi-kokubili okuye kwahlala okufanayo nokuthi kwenzekani-ake sicabangele ukuhlolwa kukaMichael Restivo no-Arnout van de Rijt (2012) . Babefuna ukuqonda umphumela wezinhlelo ezingakahleleki zontanga ekunikezeni umnikelo ku-Wikipedia. Ngokuyinhloko, bafunda imiphumela yamabarnstars , umklomelo wokuthi noma yiliphi i-Wikipedia linganikeza noma yiliphi elinye i-Wikipedia ukuthi livume umsebenzi onzima nokuzikhandla okukhulu. I-Restivo ne-van de Rijt banikeza amabarnstars kuma-Wikipedians afanelekayo ayi-100. Khona-ke, balandelela iminikelo eyalandela yabakwa-Wikipedia ezinsukwini ezingu-90 ezilandelayo. Bamangaliswa kakhulu, abantu ababanikeza amabarnstars bavame ukwenza ukuhlela okuncane ngemva kokuthola eyodwa. Ngamanye amazwi, amabarnstars abonakala edikibala kunokuba akhuthaze umnikelo.

Ngenhlanhla, i-Restivo ne-van de Rijt babengaqhubi "ukuhlolwa kwe-perturb nokugcina"; babeqhuba ukuhlolwa okulawulwa ngokungahleliwe. Ngakho-ke, ngaphezu kokukhetha abanikeli abangaphezulu abangu-100 ukuthola inqolobane, baphinde bathathe abanikeli abangaphezulu abangu-100 abangabanikanga. Lawa ma-100 ayekhonza njengeqembu lokulawula. Futhi, ngokuyinhloko, ubani owayeseqenjini lokwelapha futhi owayeseqembu lokulawula wayezimisele ngokungahleliwe.

Lapho i-Restivo ne-van de Rijt bebheke ukuziphatha kwabantu eqenjini lokulawula, bathole ukuthi iminikelo yabo nayo yehla. Ngaphezu kwalokho, lapho u-Restivo no-van de Rijt beqhathanisa nabantu abasesigabeni sokwelapha (okungukuthi, bathola amabarnstars) kubantu abaqenjini lokulawula, bathola ukuthi abantu abasesigabeni sokwelashwa banikele ngamaphesenti angaba ngu-60%. Ngamanye amazwi, iminikelo yamaqembu womabili ayekhohlisa, kodwa labo beqembu lokulawula benza ngokushesha kakhulu.

Njengoba lolu cwaningo lubonisa, iqembu lokulawula ekuhlolweni libucayi ngendlela ehlukile. Ukuze kutholakale ngokuqondile umphumela wamabhasta, i-Restivo ne-van de Rijt kwakudingeka babone abantu abangazange bathole amabhasta. Izikhathi eziningi, abacwaningi abangazi kahle ukuhlolwa abahluleki ukuqonda ukubaluleka okungakahleki kweqembu lokulawula. Uma i-Restivo ne-van de Rijt bengakaze babe neqembu lokulawula, bebengabe bethola isiphetho esingalungile. Amaqembu okulawula abaluleke kakhulu ukuthi i-CEO yekhampani enkulu ye-casino ithe ukuthi kunezindlela ezintathu kuphela abasebenzi abangaxoshwa kuzo kwenkampani yakhe: ukweba, ukuhlukunyezwa ngokocansi, noma ukuqhuba ukuhlolwa ngaphandle kweqembu lokulawula (Schrage 2011) .

Ucwaningo lwe-Restivo no-van de Rijt lubonisa izithako ezine eziyinhloko zokuhlola: ukuqashelwa, ukungahleliwe, ukungenelela, kanye nemiphumela. Ngokubambisana, lezi zithako ezine zivumela ososayensi ukuba bahambe ngaphezu kwemibono futhi bahlole umphumela we-causal wezokwelapha. Ngokuqondile, ukungahleliwe kusho ukuthi abantu abakwelashwa kanye namaqembu okulawula bazofana. Lokhu kubalulekile ngoba kusho ukuthi noma yikuphi umehluko emiphakathini emkhatsini wamaqembu amabili kungabizwa ngokuthi ukwelashwa hhayi ukuphazamiseka.

Ngaphandle kokuba umfanekiso omuhle womshini wokuhlola, i-Restivo no-van de Rijt ucwaningo lubonisa nokuthi ukufakwa kwezivivinyo zedijithali kungahluke ngokuphelele kulawo okuhlolwa kwe-analog. Ku-Restivo nokuzama kukaVan de Rijt, kwakungelula ukunikeza umgcini kunoma ubani, futhi kwakungelula ukulandelela umphumela wemizuzu-isikhathi esengeziwe (ngoba umlando wokuhlela urekhodwa ngokuzenzakalelayo yi-Wikipedia). Lekhono lokuletha ukwelashwa nokulinganisa imiphumela ngaphandle kwezindleko ngekhwalithi ngokungafani nokuhlolwa esikhathini esidlule. Nakuba lo mzamo wawuhilele abantu abangu-200, kungenzeka ukuthi usebenze nabantu abangu-2 000 noma ngisho nabangu-20,000. Into eyinhloko yokuvimbela abacwaningi ukuba bangakhulumi ukuhlolwa kwabo ngesilinganiso sama-100 kwakungekho izindleko; kwakuyizimiso zokuziphatha. Okusho ukuthi, i-Restivo no-van de Rijt abafuni ukunikeza abagcini bamabhengezi abahleli abangafaneleki, futhi abafuni ukuthi ukuzama kwabo kuphazamise umphakathi we-Wikipedia (Restivo and Rijt 2012, 2014) . Ngizobuyela kwezinye izici zokuziphatha eziphakanyiswe ukuhlolwa kamuva kule sahluko nasesahlukweni 6.

Ekuphetheni, ukuhlolwa kwe-Restivo ne-van de Rijt kubonisa ngokucacile ukuthi nakuba ukuqonda okuyisisekelo kokuzama ukungazange kushintshe, ukufakwa kokuhlolwa kwe-digital-age kungahlukahluka kakhulu. Okulandelayo, ukuze kuhlukaniswe ngokucacile amathuba okudalwe yizi zinguquko, ngizoqhathanisa ukuhlolwa abacwaningi abangakwenza manje ngezinhlobo zokuhlola ezenziwe esikhathini esidlule.