2.4.3.1 Natural ho okolohua

Maoli ho okolohua i ka lanakila o ka Random hanana i loko o ke ao nei. kaulele hanana + mau-ma aeaiiuo nenoaiu = maoli hoʻokolohua

Ke ki i randomized kekahi lāʻau 'ho okolohua ka ho'ā maikai e like ka randomization. Eia naʻe, occasionally kekahi hana iloko o ke ao nei a pauʻano nui waihona poe kanaka randomly a kokoke randomly i okoa kūlana kanaka. Kekahi o clearest examples o ka papa kōnane o ka hoʻohana maoli ho okolohua hiki mai ka noiʻi a Angrist (1990) e ana i ke kanawai o ke koa lawelawe ma loaʻa kālā.

Oiai ke kaua ma Vietnam, kaʻAmelika Hui Pūʻia māhuahua ka nui o kona mau puali koa ma ka hei ana. I mea e hooholo i kanaka e, e kapaʻia i loko o hana, o ka US aupuni paa i ka lottery. Kela birthdate ua poe maluna o ka apana o ka pepa, a me kēia mau palapala a ua waihoia lakou ma ka nui aniani kiaha. E like me ka hoike ana i loko o ke Kii 2,5, ua holo keia mau kika aku o ka pepa mai ka ipu, kekahi i ka manawa e hooholo i ka olelo e kapaia e na kanaka ui e, e malama (ua i malama i ke kikoo'ōpio wahine). Ma muli o nā hualoaʻa, ua kapaia hānau ma September 14 kanaka mua, ua kapaʻia ka lua hānau ma April 24 kanaka, a pela aku. Ultimately, ma keia lottery, ua kapaia hānau i 195ʻokoʻa la na kanaka i ka hana ana hānauʻia ma luna o 171 la na kanaka,ʻaʻole i kapaia.

Kii 2.5: Congressman Alexander Pirnie (R-HI) unuhi aku la ia i ka capsule mua no ka Selective Hana kikoo maluna o Dekemaba 1, 1969. Iosua Angrist (1990) hui ke kikoo lottery me ka loaʻa kālā 'ikepili mai ka lawelawe mālama ola kia'āina' ke hoʻomaopopoʻia ka hopena o ka oihana koa hana ma loaʻa kālā. Keia mea he laʻana o ka hana noiʻi me kekahi maoli hoʻokolohua. Source: Wikimedia maoli

Kii 2.5: Congressman Alexander Pirnie (R-HI) unuhi aku la ia i ka capsule mua no ka Selective Hana kikoo maluna o Dekemaba 1, 1969. Iosua Angrist (1990) hui ke kikoo lottery me ka loaʻa kālā 'ikepili mai ka lawelawe mālama ola kia'āina' ke hoʻomaopopoʻia ka hopena o ka oihana koa hana ma loaʻa kālā. Keia mea he laʻana o ka hana noiʻi me kekahi maoli hoʻokolohua. Source: Wikimedia maoli

ʻOiai Ka mea, i ole ai e koke maopopo, i hookahi hei ana lottery i ka pilikia similarity i ka randomized kekahi lāʻau 'hoʻokolohua, ma na wahi, i hiki i komo ua randomly ia e loaa i ka lapaau. Ma ka hihia o ke kikoo lottery, ina ua hoihoi i ke aʻo 'ana e pili ana i ka hopena o ke kikoo-eligibility, a me kou lawelawe ma mahope hana market loaʻa kālā kakou, ia kakou ke hoohalike nā haumāna no nā poʻe kānaka nona birthdates a pau ma lalo o ka lottery cutoff (e like me, September 14, April 24, etc.) a me nā haumāna no nā kānaka nona piha makahiki e noho ana ma hope o ka cutoff (e like me, Pepeluali 20, December 2, etc.).

Haawi i keia hana o ka pâʻani Ua pio ka polokalamu randomly ia, ia kakou e hiki alaila, e ana i ke kanawai o keia iapaau ana no kekahi hoʻokūkū e i ana. No ka mea, laʻana, Angrist (1990) ana i ka ike e pili ana i ka mea i randomly wae i loko o ka hei ana me ka loaʻa kālā 'ikepili i ohi ia e ka lawelawe mālama ola kia'āina' e manao nei makou i na loaʻa kālā a keokeo veterans ua kokoke 15% emi malalo o na loaʻa kālā o ka like non-veterans . Other noiʻi, ua hoʻohana ka like liana e like me ka pono. No ka mea, laʻana, Conley and Heerwig (2011) ana i ka ike e pili ana i ka mea i randomly wae i loko o ka hei ana me ka ohua 'ikepili i ohi ia mai ka 2000 helu, a me 2005 American Community Survey a loaa ia i kona loihi ana mahope iho o ka hei ana, ua uuku loa-kau kanawai o koa hana maʻano o nā haumāna e like me ka hale loiloi (kuleana versus renting) a me ka noho kumupaʻa (likelihood o ua neʻe i mua elima makahiki).

E like me keia hana kahaki ii ka, i kekahi manawa, ka nohona, ka manaʻo politika, ai ole ia, ma kona ano maoli koa ho okumu ia mea a kokoke-ho okolohua e hiki ke leveraged e noiʻi. Pinepine maoli ho okolohua na pono alanui e manaʻo 'ana ma ke kumu-a-kanawai ma ka napoo ana no hoi kahi no ka mea, aole ethical, aole hoi he mea hiki, e holo randomized lāʻau hoʻokolohua. Ka mea, ua nui i kou akamai no ka wehe aʻe ia i maikai like me kā ka 'ole-mana ikepili. Keia noiʻi kou akamai e hiki ke manaʻoi hoʻopōkole 'ia ma kēia helu kaulike;

\ [\ kikokikona, kaulele (ai ole ia, e like me he mea moʻolelo kaulele) hanana} + \ kikokikona, mau-ma aeaiiuo kahawai} = \ kikokikona {maoli hoʻokolohua} \ qquad (2.1) \]

Akā naʻe, i ka Ikepili maoli ho okolohua e lilo loa ai tricky. No ka mea, laʻana, ma ka hihia o ka Vietnam kikoo, aole mea nana i kikoo-kūpono i pau ai ana (he likeʻole ma o exemptions). A, i ka ia manawa, o kekahi poʻe i ole hei-kūpono hāʻawi manawaleʻa no ka oihana. Ka mea, ua like me he mea i loko o ka lapaʻau hookolokolo ana i ka lāʻau 'hou, kekahi mau kānaka i loko o ka iapaau ana hui i lawe i ko lakou laau lapaau, a me kekahi o nā kānaka i loko o ka mana pūʻulu somehow loaa i ka waiʻona. Keia pilikia, kapa elua kapakahi noncompliance, e like me na mea he nui na pilikia i ho'ākāka 'ia i loko o nui au mamuli o kekahi o ka waihoʻikepili ma ka hopena o kēia mokuna.

Ka papa kōnane a lawe ka lanakila o maoli 'ia kaulele paha ma mua o ka mīkini makahiki, aka, o ka prevalence o ka nui ikepili i keia kou akamai nui maʻalahi e hoʻohana. Koke oe i hoʻomaopopo i kekahi mau hana i ia randomly, nui ikepili kumu e hoʻolako i ka hoʻokūkū 'ikepili i ko oukou pono, i mea e hoohalike i ka hualoaʻa no nā kānaka ma loko o ka iapaau ana a me ka hooponopono ana. No ka mea, laʻana, ma kona study o na ona o ka hei ana, a me koa lawelawe, Angrist i hoʻohana 'ana loaʻa kālā mooolelo, mai ka lawelawe mālama ola kia'āina; me keia hoʻokūkū aeaiiua, i kona study aole makou i hookahe hiki. Ma keia hihia, o ka lawelawe mālama ola kia'āina, oia ka mau-ma nui ikepili kumu. E like me ka nui a me ka oi akomi 'ohi' ikepili kumu ola, e loaa ia kakou oi aku hoʻokūkū 'ikepili e hiki ana i ka hopena o ka loli hana ma exogenous oko a.

E kahaki i keia kou akamai ma loko o ka mīkini makahiki, e ka noonoo Mas a me Moretti ka (2009) leo hone noiʻi ma ka hopena o na¯ ma productivity. ʻOiai Luna o kaʻili ia ke nana aku okoa Angrist ke kuka nei e pili ana i na ona o ka Vietnam kikoo ma mua, ma nā hale a lakou i elua hahai i ke kumu ma ka eq. 2.1.

Mas, a me Moretti ana i na¯ ololi ai i ka hana a hana. Ma ka kekahi lima, me he mea paakiki e hana ana i nā hoa ke alakai poe hana, e hoomahuahua i ko lakou productivity no o nā hoa a paÿa. Ai ole ia, ma ka kekahi lima, he mea paakiki e hana ana i nā hoa ke alakai i kekahi poe hana, e hookaulua aku a hiki loa aku. Ka clearest ala e noiʻi i nā hoa ona ma productivity i makemake e ka randomized kekahi lāʻau 'hoʻokolohua kahi poe hana i randomly häʻawi mai ai iä hoʻololi ai i ka hana ana i ka okoa productivity pae, a laila, kūpono productivity ua anaia mai no a pau. Noiʻi, naʻe, e kūʻole i ka haʻalele 'ana o ka hana i loko o kekahi maoli hana, a pela Mas, a me Moretti i e hilinai aku maluna o kekahi maoli hoʻokolohuaʻana i loko o ka supermarket.

Pono e like me eq. 2.1, o ko lakou kuka nei, he elua wahi. Mua, lakou i hoʻohana na pauku mai ka supermarket a Kūʻai nenoaiu e loaa i kūlike loa, kanaka, a mau loa, ma ka ana o ka productivity:ʻo ka heluʻana o nā 'ikamu scanned kekona. A, lua, no ka mea, o ke alanui e haʻalele 'ana, ua hanaia ma keia supermarket, ua loaa kokoke kaulele haku mele' ana o na¯. Ma na olelo, a hiki nae i ka haʻalele 'ana o nā cashiers mea, aole manao ma ka lottery, heʻano nui moʻolelo kaulele. I mea, ke hilinai mākou kuleana i loko maoli hoao pinepine ami ma ka plausibility o keia "e like me-he" moʻolelo kaulele kuleana. Lawe ka lanakila o kēia moʻolelo kaulele oko, Mas a me Moretti loaa ai ka hana me ka oi productivity na¯ maoli he productivity. Eia, Mas a me Moretti hoʻohana i ka nui a me ka richness o ko lakou dataset e neʻe ma kēlāʻaoʻao o ka manao o ke kumu-a-keia, e makaikai i elua hou nui a me ka maalea kumuhana: heterogeneity o keia kanawai, (no ka mea, mea ano o na hana, oia ke kanawai nui) a meʻano papa hana ma hope o ka hopena (no ke aha la e hana me ka kiʻekiʻe productivity na¯ alakai i luna productivity). Makou e hoi hou aku i keia mau mea nui helu-heterogeneity o ka lapaau waiwai, a me maomeka-ma ka Mokuna 5 ka wa a makou kamaʻilio ho okolohua i hou au mamuli.

Generalizing mai nā haʻawina ma ke kanawai o ka Vietnam kikoo i loaʻa kālā, a me ke ao ana o ke kanawai o na¯ ma productivity, Papa 2.3 manaʻoi hoʻopōkole 'na haʻawina i loaa i keia kiko'ī hookahi' ole, ka hoʻohana 'ana i kekahi mau-ma aeaiiuo kumu e ana i ka hopena o kekahi hanana . E like me ka Papa 2.3 mea maopopo, maoli ho okolohua ua wahi apau, ina oe wale ike i ka nana aku no lakou.

Papa 2.3: 'O kekahi maoli ho okolohua ka hoʻohana nui ikepili kumu. keia mau haʻawina a pau e hahai i ka hookahi kumu o beauty: kaulele (ai ole ia, e like me he mea moʻolelo kaulele) hanana + mau-ma aeaiiuo nenoaiu. Ike Dunning (2012) no ka oi examples.
Substantive pulakaumaka Kumu o maoli hoʻokolohua Mau-ma aeaiiuo kumu mau kuhikuhina
Kūkā waiwai ma productivity haʻalele 'ana kaʻina a Kūʻai ikepili Mas and Moretti (2009)
aloha ho okumu makani pāhili Facebook Phan and Airoldi (2015)
Laha o na Emotions ka ua Facebook Coviello et al. (2014)
Kūkā e kūkā aneiai ka hoʻoili ōlaʻi kūʻai lawe kālāʻikepili Blumenstock, Fafchamps, and Eagle (2011)
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Aneiai hopena o recommender nenoai likeʻole keleʻikepili ma Amazon Sharma, Hofman, and Watts (2015)
Kanawai o ka stress ma unborn keiki 2006 Israel-Hezbollah kaua Birth moʻolelo Torche and Shwed (2015)
Heluhelu ana ma Wikipedia Snowden hoikeana Wikipedia pauku Penney (2016)

Ma ka hana, noiʻi ho ohana eluaʻokoʻa papa kōnane no ka loaa maoli hoʻokolohua,ʻo ka mea e hiki ai e hoohua. Kekahi noiʻi hoʻomaka me ka mau, ma aeaiiuo kumu, a nana no Random nā hanana i loko o ke ao nei; kekahi hoʻomaka me Random hanana ma ke ao nei, a nana noʻikepili kumu i paʻa i ko lakou hopena. Eia ke oki, hai i ka ikaika o maoli ho okolohua e hiki ole mai ka sophistication o ke ana helu Ka Ikepili, aka, mai ka malama ana i ka wehe aʻe ia i ka nani e like hanaia ma ka Pomaikai ulia o ka moʻolelo.