### 3.4.1 Probability mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku: aeaiiuo ohi, a me kaʻikepili Ka Ikepili

Paona ke hoʻihoʻi mai ei intentionally, kena ae la ia e ka mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku kaʻina.

Probability Eia kekahi laʻana ua mau wahi kanaka a pau i ka ike, ai 'Aʻohe probability o inclusion, a me ka simplest probability mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku mea i manao ai, he mea kaulele mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku kahi e kela a me keia mea i like probability o ka inclusion. I ka wa i koho respondents Via alodio kaulele mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku me ka hooko (e like me, aoleʻaoʻao pale kikowaena, a aole hoi ole-pane), a laila, e manaʻo, ua straightforward no ka mea, o ka hāpana, e-ma awelika-e i ka'āhihi hoʻokolohua o ka heluna kanaka.

Simple kaulele mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku, ua Kākaʻikahi ka hoʻomaʻamaʻa, nae. E aho, noiʻi intentionally koho i poe kanaka me kaʻewaʻewa probabilities o ka inclusion i mea e ho'ēmi i lilo, ae māhuahua pololei. I ka noiʻi intentionally koho i poe kanaka meʻano probabilities o ka inclusion, alaila, ua pono hoʻololi 'ana i wehe i nā ei kauoha ia e ka mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku kaʻina. Ma kekahi olelo, pehea la kakou generalize mai ka hāpana hilinaʻi nui ma ka wae i ka hāpana ua.

No ka mea, laʻana, i ka nū hou Heluna Survey (CPS) ua hoʻohana 'ia e ka US Aupuni ke hoʻomaopopoʻia ka nele ana. Kela a me keia mahina ma kahi o 100.000 kanaka nīnauele, kekahi maka-i-maka ai 'ole ma luna o ke kelepona, a me ka hopena ua hoʻohanaʻia e paka i ka aayoaeuiinoe nele ana. No ka mea, o ke aupuni makemake ke hoʻomaopopoʻia ka nele ana i kela a me keia Mokuaina, he mea hiki ole ke hana i kekahi mea kaulele hāpana o nā mākua no ka mea e haawi oi kakaikahi respondents ma Huipuia, me populations liʻiliʻi (e like me, o Rode Island) a nui na mea he nui mai ka Hui Pūʻia me ka nui populations (e like , Hawaii). Akā,ʻo ka CPS Eia kekahi laʻana kanaka maʻokoʻa Huipuia, i okoa holo 'awelika, he kaʻina kapaia stratified mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku me kaʻewaʻewa probability o ka wae. No ka mea, laʻana, ina na CPS makemake 2,000 respondents o ka noho ana, alaila, nā mākua i loko o Rode Island e loaa ma kahi o 30 mau manawa kiekie probability o ka inclusion ma mua o nā mākua ma Hawaii (Rode Island: 2,000 respondents no 800.000 nā mākua kakou Hawaii: 2,000 respondents no 30.000.000 makua). E like me kakou e ike hope mai, i keia ano o ka mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku me kaʻewaʻewa probabilityʻia ana me online, kumu o na aeaiiuo nui, aka, e like me na CPS, ua hookuu aole i ike i ka mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻukuʻano papa hana paha i kekahi lāʻau 'ia e ke kanaka noiʻi.

Haawi mai i kona mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku manao, ke CPS mea, aole i pololei 'elele o ka US; ka mea, nā Ua nui loa na kanaka mai o Rode Island, a he poe uuku mai Kaleponi. Nolaila, he mea naaupo ke hoʻomaopopoʻia ka nele ana iloko o ka aina, me ka nele ana i loko o ka hāpana. Ma kahi o ka laʻana 'O ia hoʻi, e aho e lawe i ke kaupaonaʻana' O ia hoʻi, kahi o na paona hoike no ka mea, o ka mea i na kanaka, mai Rode Island ua oi aku e kiʻi mai ia e komo ma mua o nā kānaka, mai Kaleponi. No ka mea, laʻana, kela kanaka mai Kaleponi e upweighted- lakou e helu aku i ka olelo, a me kela a me keia mea, mai o Rode Island e, e downweighted-lakou e helu emi mai ma ka olelo. Ma Mānoa, ua haawi mai oi leo i ka poʻe kānaka a pau ia oukou, ua emi ao ao e aʻo mai e pili ana.

Keia liʻiliʻi kumu kahaki ii ka nui akā, mau misunderstood i point: he hāpana aole pono, aole e lilo i ka'āhihi hoʻokolohua o ka heluna kanaka ma ka mea e paka maikai koho. Ina lawa, ua ike e pili ana i ka 'ikepili i' ohi, a laila, hiki ke hoʻohana i ka 'ike i ka wa e koho mai ke hāpana. Ke kokoke loa i kahi I au i ho'ākāka 'ia ma, a me ka mea aʻu e wehewehe mathematically i loko o ka oaoieei-i paiiaʻi-haule squarely iloko o ka panina probability mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku? Aieao i. Ano, aole au e hoike aku i ka mea ia manaʻo e hiki ke hoopili i ole-probability Eia kekahi laʻana.