### 3.4.3 ole-probability Eia kekahi laʻana: hāpana'ālike

I pau ole-probability Eia kekahi laʻana na ia. Ia kakou ke hooloihi hou hooponopono ma ke alo hopena.

Ke kokoke loa i kahi Wang, a me nā hoapili hoÿohana i ke kiÿeleo i ka hope o ka 2012 US presidential koho kaukaʻi loa i hana hou i loko o aeaiiuo Ka Ikepili. Oia hoi, lakou ohi e like me na pane e like me lakou i hiki ai alaila hoao i ka hou 'ana i ke kaumaha o ia mau mea. A complementary kou akamai, no ka hoʻohanaʻana i ole probability mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku mea e loaa hou hooponopono maluna o ka aeaiiuo ohi kaʻina.

Ka simplest kumu o ka hapa 'ia i kekahi lāʻau' ole-probability mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku kaʻina he quota mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku, heʻano hana e hele hou i nā lā kakahiaka nui o ka anamanaʻo noiʻi. In quota mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku, noiʻi mahele i ka heluna kanaka i loko o kekahi mau hui (e like me, na kanaka ui, ui wahine, a pela aku) a alaila, i quotas no ka nui o na kanaka e koho ma kela a me keia hui. Respondents ua koho i loko o ka haphazard ano hiki i ke kanaka noiʻi i hālāwai ko lakou quota iloko o kela a me keia hui. No ka mea, o ka poe quotas, ke kūpono hāpana nānā hou e like me ka pale heluna mamua e oiaio ole ia, aka, no ka mea, o na probabilities o ka inclusion, ua ike ole na noiʻi he-Liloa i quota mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku. In mea, quota mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku he kumu no ka "Dewey make ai Truman" ma ka makahiki 1948, US Presidential mau poo lalau. No ka mea,ʻo ia ka kekahi mana ma luna o ka mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku kaʻina hana, naʻe, i kekahi ke ike pehea quota mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku ke loaa kekahi pono ma luna o ka loa kipi ikepili ohi.

Neʻe ma kela aoao o quota mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku, oi laekahi hoʻokokoke mai i ke kaōhiʻana i ka ole-probability mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku kaʻina he ano hiki. Hanakimi ua kokoke loa i kahi i kapaia o hāpana'ālike, a ua hoʻohana 'ia e kekahi kalepa online, panel pūnaewele. Iloko o kona simplest ano, hāpana'ālike pono elua ikepili kumu: 1) i loa? Aaeno o ke kanaka, a me 2) ka nui panel o na hana manawaleʻa. He mea nui i na hana manawaleʻa, aole pono e lilo i probability hāpana mai kekahi heluna kanaka; e kuapo mea, aole no koi no ka mea, ke koho i loko o ka panel, aole au e kapa ia he dirty panel. Hoi, Pono e komo i ka heluna? Aaeno? A me ka dirty panel kekahi auxiliary ike e pili ana i kela a me keia mea, ma keia hana, aole au e noonoo makahiki a me ke keka, aka, ma realistic wahi, i hiki i keia auxiliary ike hiki e nui aku piha. Ka liana o ka hāpana'ālike oia e wae Eia kekahi laʻana o ka dirty panel, ma ke ala e produces Eia kekahi laʻana e nana like me probability Eia kekahi laʻana.

Laʻana'ālike hoʻomaka i ka wa a ka simulated probability hāpana, ua laweia mai ka heluna aaeno; keia simulated laʻana i ka pale hāpana. A laila, ma ka auxiliary ike, ua like ke kanaka hihia ma ka pale umauma hoʻokahi laʻana i loko o ka dirty panel e lilo i like hāpana. No ka mea, laʻana, ina aia no he 25 makahiki kahiko wahine i loko o ka pale umauma hoʻokahi laʻana, alaila, o ke kanaka noiʻi loaʻa ka 25 makahiki kahiko wahine mai ka dirty panel, e noho ma ka like hāpana. Eia ke oki, nā lālā o ka like hāpana nīnauele e paka ia ke kauoha hope loa o respondents.

'Aʻole nō naʻe i ka like hāpana nānā e like me ka pale hāpana, he mea pono ke hoomanao i ka like hāpana mea, aole he probability hāpana. hiki wale e like Eia kekahi laʻana like loa me ka pale hāpana ma ka ike auxiliary ike (e like me, makahiki a me keka), akā,ʻaʻole i unmeasured ano. No ka mea, laʻana, ina kanaka ma ka dirty panel kamaʻilioʻana iʻuʻuku iho kona waiwai, mahope iho o na mea a pau, hookahi kumu e hui i ka anamanaʻo panel mea e loaʻa ke kālā, a laila, e, ina nana e like me ka pale hāpana ka like hāpana i ka olelo o ka makahiki, a me keka ia e noho i he bias ma ilihune kanaka. Ka hana kilokilo a oiaio probability mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku ka mea e alii ai maluna o aku pilikia ma na ana a me na unmeasured ano (a wahi i ka pahuhopu nei me ko makou kūkā o ka'ālike no ka mea, causal kuhi mai observational haʻawina ma ka Mokuna 2).

Ma ka hana, hāpana'ālike hilinaʻi nui i loaa i ka nui a me nā panel eager e paa ana, a pela ka mea, uaʻano nui hanaia e na poʻe a pau e hiki ke hoolawaia e hoʻomohala, ae malama i na he panel. No hoi, ma ka hana, aole e hiki e hoʻopilikia me'ālike (kekahi manawa, he maikai külike no ka mea i loko o ka pale umauma hoʻokahi hāpana hakuʻole ma luna o ka panel) a me ka 'ole-pane (i kekahi manawa poʻe kānaka i loko o ka like hāpana hoole ke komo' ana i loko o ka anamanaʻo). No laila, ma ka hana, noiʻi hana hāpana'ālike hoʻi hooko i kekahi ano o ka kia-stratification hoʻoponopono i ka hana koho.

He mea eha e hoʻolako pono keia mau mea theoretical hoʻohiki e pili ana i laʻana'ālike, aka, ma ka hana ka mea e hiki ke hana pono. No ka mea, laʻana, Stephen Ansolabehere a Brian Schaffner (2014) hoohalikeia ekolu laua ana o kahi o 1,000 poe kanaka mālama 'ia ma ka makahiki 2010 me ​​ekoluʻokoʻa mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku, a me nīnauele epekema: mail, kelepona, a me ka Internet panel me hāpana'ālike, a kia-stratification hoʻoponopono. Ka poe koho mai na hoʻokokoke mai ekolu, ua kokoke like i koho mai kiʻekiʻe-kbps Māka e like me ka nū hou Heluna Survey (CPS) a me ka National Health Lekio Survey (NHIS). More ua hōʻike hewa, o ka Internet a me ka eke ana ua aku la, ma ka awelika o ka 3 pakeneka helu, a me ke kelepona anamanaʻo i aku la ka 4 pakeneka ka papa. Hewa i keia nui, ua kaha ka mea hookahi e manaʻo mai Eia kekahi laʻana o ka puni 1,000 poe kanaka. Oiai, kekahi o keia mau 'ole he kūpono kou maikai aeaiiua, o ka Internet a me ka kelepona anamanaʻo (ka mea i na la a pule) ua kūpono kou wikiwiki i ka mahinaʻai ma mua o ka eke leta anamanaʻo (ka mea i ewalu malama), a me ka Internet anamanaʻo, ka mea i hoʻohana hāpana'ālike, ua cheaper ma mua o nā 'ole kekahi elua.

Ma ka hopena, lawelawe epekema a me na statisticians he incredibly-Liloa i kuhi mai keia mau ole-probability Eia kekahi laʻana, ma ka hapa no ka mea, ua pili i kekahi mau hilahila ihola inā 'aʻole' o ka anamanaʻo noiʻi e like me ka palapala, ai 'hōʻuluʻulu manaʻo kino. Ma ka aoao, Iʻae i kēia skepticism: unadjusted ole-probability Eia kekahi laʻana a pau, aolie paka ino koho. Eia naʻe, ina noiʻi ke hoʻomaʻa no na biases i loko o ka mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku kaʻina (e like me, lāʻau kū-stratification) ai 'ole ka pāʻana i ka mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku kaʻina hana i kekahi mau mea (e like me, hāpana'ālike), aole lakou e hiki ke paka maikai koho, a me ke koho ana i kupono ma Hawaiʻi no ka hapanui hana. O ka papa, e aho e hana lea i probability mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku, aka, aole akaka e lilo i realistic AOAIAaOO.

Na ole-probability Eia kekahi laʻana, a me probability Eia kekahi laʻana lauwili iloko o ko lakou quality, a ianoiyuaa a he mea paha i ka hihia a pau loa koho mai probability Eia kekahi laʻana, ua oi oiaio mamua o koho ka politika, probability Eia kekahi laʻana. Aka, ano, ke koho mai maikaʻi-lawelawe 'ia' ole-probability Eia kekahi laʻana, uaʻoi aku paha koho mai poorly-lawelawe 'ia probability Eia kekahi laʻana. Eia, ole probability Eia kekahi laʻana, ua kūpono kou cheaper. Pela, eia kahi mea akaka ia probability kakou 'ole-probability mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku e kaumaha ana i ka waiwai e lilo aku, e like kuai-aku (Kii 3.6). E nana ana imua, Ke manaʻo nei e koho mai maikaʻi-hana ole-probability Eia kekahi laʻana, e lilo cheaper a me ka maikai. Eia, no ka mea, o ka mea breakdown ma ka landline kelepona ana a me ka ulu holo 'awelika o ka non-pane, I manao nei probability Eia kekahi laʻana, e lilo lakou i poe pipiʻi, a me ka haahaa e like ai. Ma muli o kēia mau loa-makahiki kū i ke au, ke manao nei au ole-probability mea hōʻikeʻikeʻuʻuku, e lilo increasingly nui i loko o ke kolu o ka au mai o anamanaʻo noiʻi.