4.4.3 Nzira dzinoshandiswa

Kuedza kuyera zvakaitika. Zvenhengo tsanangura nei uye sei zvakaitika.

Chechitatu chinokosha pfungwa kutamira zvinopfuura nyore kuedza zviri zvenhengo. Zvenhengo inotiudzei nei kana kuti kurapwa akaita chimwe chinhu. Muitiro kutsvaka zvenhengo chiri dzimwe nguva anonzi kutsvaka kupindira variables kana muyananisi variables. Kunyange zvazvo kuedza zvakanaka nokuda kupima causal Migumisiro, vanowanzoororwa havana zvakagadzirirwa kuzivisa zvenhengo. Digital zera kuedza kunogona kutibatsira kuziva zvenhengo nenzira mbiri: 1) Ivo tikwanise kuunganidza zvakawanda muitiro Data uye 2) ivo tikwanise kuongorora kurapwa zhinji chokuita.

Nokuti zvenhengo vari runonyengera kurondedzera pamutemo (Hedström and Ylikoski 2010) , Ndava kutanga muenzaniso nyore: Limes and chakakuvara (Gerber and Green 2012) . Muzana remakore rechi18 vanachiremba vaiva nepfungwa yakanaka kuti kana vezvikepe vakadya limes havana kuwana chakakuvara. Chakakuvara ndiye chakaipisisa chirwere saka izvi zvakanga mashoko simba. Asi, vanachiremba ava havana kuziva nei limes kudziviswa chakakuvara. Zvakanga kusvikira 1932, anenge makore 200 gare gare, kuti masayendisiti aigona yakavimbika kuratidza kuti vhitamini C chaiva chikonzero kuti madota kwakatadzisa chakakuvara (Carpenter 1988, p 191) . Panyaya iyi, vhitamini C ndiwo mashandiro kuburikidza iyo limes kudzivirira chakakuvara (Figure 4.9). Zvechokwadi, kuzivisa mashandiro kunokosha zvikuru nesayenzi-mijenya sayenzi pamusoro kunzwisisa nei zvinhu zvichiitika. Kuziva zvenhengo zvinokosha chaizvo kushanda. Kamwe tinonzwisisa nei kurapa anoshanda, tinogona vanokwanisa kuva kurapa itsva anoshanda kunyange nani.

Akasabvumirana 4.9: Limes kudzivisa chakakuvara uye mashandiro ari Vitamin C.

Zvinosuruvarisa nevamwe zvenhengo rakaoma chaizvo. Kusiyana Limes and chakakuvara, mune vazhinji Pavanenge, kurapwa pamwe ishande kuburikidza zhinji dyidzana anotenderera, izvo zvinoita voga pakati zvenhengo zvakaoma. Zvisinei, pane zvakaitika patsika dzemunharaunda uye simba kushandiswa, masayendisiti akaedza patsanura zvenhengo nekunhonga muitiro Data uye kuedza ukama mishonga.

Imwe nzira yokuedza zvinobvira zvenhengo ndeyokuita nekunhonga muitiro mashoko nezvokuti sei kurapa rinoitei zvichibvira zvenhengo. Somuenzaniso, yeuka kuti Allcott (2011) akaratidza kuti Home Energy Mishumo akaita vanhu kuderedza ravo magetsi kushandiswa. Asi, sei izvi mishumo nechepazasi magetsi kushandiswa? Chii vaiva zvenhengo? Mune arambe kudzidza, Allcott and Rogers (2014) partnered neboka simba kuti, kuburikidza purogiramu rebheti, vakanga vawana ruzivo pamusoro vatengi upgraded midziyo yavo yakawanda magetsi yokutevedzera. Allcott and Rogers (2014) vakawana kuti zvishoma kupfuura vanhu kugamuchira Home Energy Mishumo upgraded midziyo yemagetsi avo. Asi, musiyano uyu chaiva chiduku kuti aigona chete pamusana 2% iri kuderera simba kushandiswa munyika kubatwa mhuri. Nemamwe mashoko, mudziyo upgrades havana rave mashandiro kuburikidza izvo Home Energy Report ungaderedza magetsi rinodyiwa.

Nzira yechipiri kudzidza zvenhengo ndiko kumhanya kuedza vane mushanduro siyanei ari kurapwa. Somuenzaniso, muna kuedza pamusoro Schultz et al. (2007) uye vose hunotevedzana Home Energy Report kuedza, vatori zvakagoverwa aine kurapwa kuti une huru zvikamu zviviri 1) mazano pamusoro simba nemari uye 2) mashoko pamusoro kwavo simba kushandisa hama vezera ravo (Figure 4,6). Saka, zvinobvira kuti simba okuponesa mazano vari chii chakaita kuti achinje, kwete kuda kufanana mashoko. Rokuongorora zvingangoitika kuti mazano chete angave zvakakwana, Ferraro, Miranda, and Price (2011) partnered neboka mvura pedyo muAtlanta, GA, akamhanya kufanana kuedza musi kuchengetedza mvura chokuita vanenge 100,000 nemhuri. Paiva zvina mamiriro:

• boka akagamuchira mazano pamusoro rokuponesa mvura.
• boka akagamuchira mazano pamusoro rokuponesa mvura + tsika chikumbiro kuponesa mvura.
• boka akagamuchira mazano pamusoro rokuponesa mvura + tsika chikumbiro kuponesa mvura + ruzivo pamusoro kwavo mvura kushandisa hama vezera ravo.
• rimwe kudzora boka.

Vaongorori vakawana kuti mazano chete kurapwa hachina kugona mvura kushandiswa iri pfupi (rimwe gore), svikiro (gore maviri), uye refu (gore matatu) izwi. The Mazano + rokukwirira kurapwa chakaita vechikamu kutapudzwa mvura kushandiswa, asi chete zvenguva pfupi. Pakupedzisira, marapirwo mazano + chikumbiro + vezera mashoko akaita ungaderedza kushandiswa iri pfupi, svikiro, uye kwenguva refu (Figure 4.10). Kupira uku kuedza vane unbundled mishonga ndivo yakanaka nzira kufunga chikamu kurapwa-kana izvo nhengo pamwe chete-ndivo vari kukonzera chakazoitika (Gerber and Green 2012, Sec. 10.6) . Somuenzaniso, kuedza pamusoro Ferraro uye nevamwe anotiratidza kuti mvura okuponesa mazano chete hazvina kukwana kutapudzwa mvura kushandiswa.

Figure 4.10: Zvabuda kubva Ferraro, Miranda, and Price (2011) . Kurapwa aitumirwa 21 May, 2007, uye migumisiro vakanga akayera panguva chirimo 2007, 2008, uye 2009. Pakazosvika unbundling marapirwo vaongorori aitarisira kukudziridza nani pfungwa zvenhengo. The Mazano chete kurapwa akanga vanotova maturo ari pfupi (rimwe gore), svikiro (makore maviri), uye refu (makore matatu) izwi. The Mazano + rokukwirira kurapwa chakaita vechikamu kutapudzwa mvura kushandiswa, asi chete zvenguva pfupi. Zano + chikumbiro + vezera mashoko kurapwa chakaita vechikamu kutapudzwa mvura kushandiswa iri pfupi, svikiro, uye kwenguva refu. Vertical nembariro zvinofungidzirwa chivimbo zvikamu. Ona Bernedo, Ferraro, and Price (2014) kuti chaiko pakudzidza.

Zvakanakisa, mumwe anozodzidza mhiri layering yenhengo (mazano; mazano + kuzvipfuudza; mazano + chikumbiro + vezera ruzivo) kuti uzere factorial mugadziri-uyewo dzimwe nguva anonzi \ (2 ^, k \) factorial mugadziri-apo mumwe zvichibvira ibatanidzo zvinhu zvitatu kunoedzwa (Table 4.1). By achiedza ose zvichibvira mubatanidzwa zvinoriumba, vatsvakurudzi chinogona kuongorora mugumisiro mumwe chezvinhu zindoga uye pamwe. Somuenzaniso, kuedza pamusoro Ferraro uye nevamwe haitauri kana kufurirwa kuenzanisa chete ingadai yakakwana kutungamirira yakareba kuchinja maitiro. Kare, izvi zvizere factorial mazano zvakavaomera kumhanya nokuti anoda vazhinji vechikamu uye zvinoda vatsvakurudzi kuti kukwanisa chaizvo kudzora uye kununura vazhinji nokurapwa. Asi, digitaalinen zera inobvisa logistical constraints izvi mune mamwe mamiriro ezvinhu.

Mukupfupikisa, zvenhengo-pathway kuburikidza iyo kurapa ane chaizvoizvo-vari kusimba zvinokosha. Digital zera kuedza vanogona kubatsira nevatsvakurudzi kudzidza pamusoro zvenhengo 1) nekunhonga kwacho Data uye 2) kugonesa zvizere factorial mazano. The zvenhengo chinorehwa nemashoko nzira izvi zvinogona ipapo kwakaedzwa zvakananga nokuongorora akanyorerwa kuedza zvenhengo (Ludwig, Kling, and Mullainathan 2011; Imai, Tingley, and Yamamoto 2013; Pirlott and MacKinnon 2016) .

In zvachose, vatatu ava zvatinofunga-ukoshi; heterogeneity kurapwa zvinokonzerwa; uye zvenhengo-zvinopa simba yakatarwa nemazano afunge uye nokududzira kuedza. Izvi pfungwa rubatsiro vatsvakurudzi kufamba mberi nyore kuedza pamusoro chii "mabasa" kuti dzakapfuma kuedza kuti vane tighter rinobatanidza nepfungwa, dzinoratidza kupi uye nei kurapa kushanda, uye kuti kunyange kubatsira vatsvakurudzi kugadzira tibudirire kurapa. Akapiwa ichi Conceptual nezvekwakabva kuedza, ndichange zvino dzokai kuna sei unogona chaizvoizvo kuti kuedza kwako zviitike.