3.6.2 zvakapfumisa achibvunza

Kunyange zvazvo zvingava sviba, zvakapfumisa achibvunza kunogona simba.

ZVAKASIYANA kuti mukubata incompleteness pamusoro digitaalinen zvisaririra Data anomufumisa payo zvakananga ongororo data, mumwe muitiro kuti Ndicharipira zvakapfumisa kubvunza. Mumwe muenzaniso zvakapfumisa achibvunza kudzidzwa Burke and Kraut (2014) , iro ini zvambotaurwa muchitsauko (Section 3.2), pamusoro kana kuwadzana on Facebook anowedzera ushamwari simba. Pakadaro, Burke uye Kraut zvabatanidzwa ongororo Data pamwe Facebook nerogi Data.

Zvisinei, The marongero kuti Burke uye Kraut vakanga vachishanda, kwaireva kuti havana kuva nematambudziko makuru maviri kuti vatsvakurudzi kuita zvakapfumisa achibvunza chiso. Chokutanga, chaizvoizvo dzaibatanidza pamwe mashoko rinovira-muinonzi zvinyorwa linkage, iyo enzanirana ane zvinyorwa mune imwe dataset chete akakodzera zvinopupura mumwe dataset-kunogona kuva kwakaoma uye kukanganisa-kubatira (tichazoona muenzaniso dambudziko iri pazasi ). The chikuru chinetso zvakapfumisa achibvunza chechipiri ndechokuti kunaka digitaalinen zvisaririra vachange kazhinji zvakaoma nokuti vanotsvakurudza kuongorora. Somuenzaniso, dzimwe nguva mutoo kuburikidza icho inounganidzwa zviri proprietary uye aigona kuva kubatwa zvinetso zvakawanda vanorondedzerwa muChitsauko 2. Nemamwe mashoko, zvakapfumisa achibvunza zvichaita kakawanda zvinosanganisirei kukanganisa-asingatani Linking pamusoro kuongorora kuti dema-bhokisi Data manyuko zvisingazivikanwi unhu. Pasinei zvinonetsa kuti matambudziko aya maviri kuzozivisa, zvinokwanisika kuitisa tsvakurudzo anokosha nzira iyi sezvo kwakaratidzwa naStephen Ansolabehere uye Eitan Hersh (2012) kwavo tsvakurudzo pamusoro dzokuvhota maitiro ari US. Zvinokosha kuyambuka kudzidza izvi nezvedzinza nokuti zvakawanda nzira Ansolabehere uye Hersh yakatanga vachava chichibatsira dzimwe kushanda kunoita zvakapfumisa kubvunza.

Voter turnout yave nyaya pokutsvakurudza zvesayenzi enyika, uye kare, vatsvakurudzi 'kunzwisisa ndiani vovhotera uye nei kazhinji yakazoshandurwa kubva kuongorora ongororo Data. Zvisinei, Kuvhota muna US, chinhu kujairika maitiro mukuti hurumende zvinyorwa kana mumwe mugari akaita akavhotera (Chokwadi, hurumende haanyori ndiani mumwe mugari mavhoti kuti). Kwemakore akawanda, izvi vehurumende dzokuvhota zvinyorwa aiwanika papepa siyana, munzvimbo dzakasiyana-siyana muhurumende nemahofisi zveko vakakomberedza nyika. Izvi zvakaita kuti zviome, asi kwete hazviiti nokuti masayendisiti enyika kuva mufananidzo wakakwana pamusoro electorate uye kuenzanisa chii vanhu vanoti vari kuongorora pamusoro voting kwavo zvomene kuvhota maitiro (Ansolabehere and Hersh 2012) .

Asi, zvino izvi voting zvinyorwa zvave digitized, uye nhamba oga makambani zvakanyatsorongwa anounganidzwa uye zvibatanidzwe izvi dzokuvhota zvinyorwa kubudisa nzwisisika tenzi dzokuvhota mafaira kuti anyore kuvhota maitiro ose America. Ansolabehere uye Hersh partnered nomumwe nemakambani-Catalist izvi LCC-kuitira kuti kushandisa kwavo tenzi kuvhota faira kubatsira kutanga mufananidzo zviri nani electorate. Uyezve, nokuti vaivimba digitaalinen zvinyorwa anounganidzwa uye curated nekambani, izvozvo akabayira wandei zvakanakira pamusoro nokuedza yaivapo achishandisa vaongorori kuti zvaitwa pasina rubatsiro makambani uye kushandisa analoginen zvinyorwa.

Kufanana vakawanda digitaalinen zvisaririra manyuko muChitsauko 2, Catalist tenzi faira haana kusanganisira ruzhinji wevanotungamirira, attitudinal, uye misikanzwa mashoko Ansolabehere uye Hersh aida. Kuwedzera ruzivo urwu, Ansolabehere uye Hersh vakanga kufarira kuenzanisa kushumwa kuvhota maitiro kuti yakasimbiswa kuvhota maitiro (kureva, mashoko ari Catalist Database). Saka, vatsvakurudzi raunganidza Data kuti vaida sezvo chikamu Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES), hombe magariro ongororo. Zvadaro, vatsvakurudzi vakapa Catalist date ichi, uye Catalist akapa vaongorori vanodzosa zvibatanidzwe date faira raisanganisira yakasimbiswa kuvhota maitiro (kubva Catalist), vaizviona kushumwa kuvhota maitiro (kubva CCES) uye Demographics nemafungiro vakabvunzwa (kubva CCES ). Nemamwe mashoko, Ansolabehere uye Hersh zvabatsira kuvhota Data pamwe ongororo data, uye zvichiguma zvibatanidzwe faira vakwanise kuita chinhu kuti kana faira kwakaita mumwe nomumwe.

By huchiita kuti Catalist tenzi Data faira pamwe ongororo data, Ansolabehere uye Hersh akasvika zvitatu zvinokosha mhedziso. Chokutanga, pamusoro-nhau kuvhota kwakazara: vanenge hafu vasiri vavhoti yakashuma kuvhota. Kana, imwe nzira nokutarira zviri kana munhu yakashuma kuvhota, panongova ane 80% mukana kuti chaizvoizvo akavhotera. Chechipiri, pamusoro-nhau hakusi asingashumbi; pamusoro-nhau zvakawanda zvakajairika pakati mukuru-mari, vakadzidza, partisans vari mubasa paruzhinji zvinoitika. Nemamwe mashoko, vanhu vari angangobata kuvhota vari zvakare angangobata nhema pamusoro kuvhota. Chechitatu, uye zvikuru, nokuti hurongwa vachiitawo pamusoro-nhau, chaiwoiwo misiyano pakati vavhoti uye vasiri vavhoti iduku pane vanomira chete kubva kuongorora. Somuenzaniso, vaya vane bachelors dhigirii dzinenge 22 muzana pfungwa kazhinji kushuma kuvhota, asi tiri chete 10 muzana pfungwa vangangotaura chaiko vhoti. Uyezve, huripo zvekuvaka anotsanangura dzidziso kuvhota vari nani pana vachifanotaura ndiani kushuma kuvhota pane ndiani chaizvoizvo mavhoti, chinhu empirical Kuwana kuti zvinoda zvitsva dzidziso kunzwisisa uye kufungidzira kuvhota.

Asi, zvakadini tinofanira kuvimba nemigumisiro izvi? Yeuka mhinduro idzi kuvimba kukanganisa-asingatani Linking kuti dema-bhokisi Data vane asingazivikanwi yakawanda kukanganisa. More zvakananga, migumisiro mato kuva pamashandiro zviviri matanho anokosha: 1) mano Catalist chokubatanidza vakawanda zvakasiyana mashoko manyuko ichibudisa tenzi yakarurama datafile uye 2) mano Catalist kubatanidza ongororo Data kuna tenzi wayo datafile. Mumwe nomumwe matanho aya akaoma zvikuru uye zvikanganiso panguva kana danho kungaita vatsvakurudzi kuti zvakaipa ndezvipi. Zvisinei, zvose Data kubudiswa uye enzanirana vari kutsoropodza kuti akaramba nezvokuvapo Catalist sezvo boka saka unogona mari nepfuma angapedze matambudziko aya, kazhinji pane chikero kuti hapana zvedzidzo mutsvakurudzi nomumwe kana boka vaongorori angakwanisa. Munguva mberi kuverenga pakupera chitsauko, I tsanangura matambudziko aya zvizere uye sei Ansolabehere uye Hersh kuvaka nechivimbo migumisiro dzavo. Kunyange zvazvo mashoko aya dzakananga kudzidza ichi, nyaya zvakafanana izvi vachamuka vamwe vatsvakurudzi achida kubatanidza kuti dema-bhokisi digitaalinen chero mashoko zvinyorwa.

Ndezvipi mukuru zvidzidzo vatsvakurudzi kuwana kubva mukudzidza uku? Chokutanga, pane kwazvo ukoshi kubva tichipfumisa digitaalinen zvisaririra pamwe ongororo date. Chechipiri, kunyange zvazvo izvi aggregated, yezvokutengeserana matsime mashoko hakufaniri kuonekwa "pasi chokwadi", mune zvimwe zviitiko vanogona kubatsira. Kutaura zvazviri, zvakanakisisa kuenzanisa izvi Data manyuko kwete paMhedziso Chokwadi (iyo vachagara nguva dzose kuwa pfupi). Asi, zviri nani kuti achiienzanisa dzimwe iripo mashoko manyuko, izvo ichiratidzwa vane zvikanganiso uyewo.