4.4.1 ukoshi

Ukoshi zvinoreva zvakawanda sei migumisiro ane kuedza kutsigira mamwemazwi mhedziso.

Kwete kuedza kwakakwana, uye vatsvakurudzi vakave nemashoko akawanda akarerura kurondedzera zvinetso. Kuvimbiswa kunoreva kuwanda kwekuti zviitiko zvekutsvaga kumwe kunotsigira sei zvakanyanya kugumisa. Masayendisiti ezvesuzhinji akaona zvichibatsira kuparadzanisa kuvimbika mumarudzi mana makuru: nhamba yekugumisa kugadziriswa, mukati mechenyu, kugadzirisa kuvimbika, uye kubvumirana kwekunze (Shadish, Cook, and Campbell 2001, chap. 2) . Kuziva izvi mazano kuchakupa uongorori hwepfungwa kuti uongorore uye uvandudze kugadzirwa nekuongorora kwekuedza, uye ichakubatsira kukurukura nevamwe vatsvakurudzi.

Statistical conclusion kugadziriswa zvinotenderera mberi kana nhamba yekuongororwa kwekuedza kwakaitwa nenzira yakarurama. Muchirevo Schultz et al. (2007) , mubvunzo wakadaro unogona kusimbisa kana vakaverenga ivo \(p\) -values ​​zvakanaka. Nhamba dzemitemo dzinofanirwa kugadzira nekuongorora kuongororwa hazvisviki nepamusoro pebhuku rino, asi hazvina kuchinja zvakananga munguva ye digita. Chii chakashanduka, zvisinei, ndechokuti nzvimbo yekutsvaga dhigiriji muzviitiko zvekudhijita yakagadzira mikana mitsva yakadai sekushandisa nzira dzekudzidzira mitambo yekufungidzira huterogeneity yemishonga yekurapa (Imai and Ratkovic 2013) .

Zuva rakagadziriswa rinotenderera mberi kana maitiro ekuedza akaitwa zvakanaka. Kudzokera kune kuedzwa Schultz et al. (2007) , mibvunzo pamusoro pechipupuriro chemukati inogona kumira mukati mekuita maitiro, kubhadhara kurapwa, uye kuenzaniswa kwemigumisiro. Somuenzaniso, unogona kunge une hanya kuti vatsigiri vekutsvakurudza havana kuverenga mamita emagetsi zvakatendeseka. Kutaura zvazviri, Schultz nevamwe vaishanda navo vainetseka pamusoro pechinetso ichi, uye vaine sampu yemamita vaverengwa kaviri; nerufaro, zvigaro zvaive zvakafanana. Nenzira yakawanda, Schultz uye kuedza kweshamwari pamwe navo vanoita sevari nepamusoro yepamutemo, asi izvi hazvirevi nguva dzose: iyo yakaoma munda uye kuongororwa kwepakombiyuta kunowanzopinda mumatambudziko chaizvoizvo kuunza kurapa kwakakodzera kuvanhu vakarurama uye kuenzanisa migumisiro yevanhu vose. Nenzira yakanaka, gore re digital rinogona kubatsira kuderedza kushushikana pamusoro pehutano hwemukati nokuti ikozvino zviri nyore kuve nechokwadi kuti kurapa kunopiwa kune avo vanofanirwa kuigamuchira uye kuenzanisa migumisiro yevadzidzi vose.

Gadzira kuvimbika nzvimbo dzakapoteredza mutsanana pakati pe data uye zvinyorwa zvinodzidziswa. Sezvakakurukurwa muchitsauko 2, kuvaka kune mazano asina kufungidzira ayo masayendisiti evanhu vanofunga nezvazvo. Zvinosuruvarisa, izvi zvisinganzwisisiki hazvirevi nguva dzose tsanangudzo yakajeka uye zviyero. Kudzokera ku Schultz et al. (2007) , chirevo chokuti injunctive mitemo yevanhu inogona kuderedza kushandiswa kwemagetsi inoda kuti vatsvakurudzi vashandise kurapwa kwaizoita "kusaruramisa tsika dzevanhu" (semuenzaniso, inonzi emoticon) nekuyera "kushandiswa kwemagetsi". Mune maitiro ekufananidzira, vatsvakurudzi vazhinji vakazvigadzira marapirwo avo uye vakayera zvavakawana. Iyi nzira inogutsikana kuti, sezvingangoita, zvidzidzo zvinopindirana nevakstract constructs iri kudzidza. Mune zvigadzirwa zvemagetsi apo vanotsvakurudza vanobatana nemakambani kana hurumende kuti varatidze kurapwa uye kushandisa nguva dzose-pane zvigadzirwa zve data kuti zvienzane nemigumisiro, mutambo pakati pekuedza uye zvidzidzo zvinyorwa zvingave zvisinganyatsoomeswa. Nokudaro, ndinotarisira kuti kugadzira kuvimbika kunowanzova kunetseka kukuru muongororo dzejigarisi pane kuongororwa kweanalogog.

Pakupedzisira, kunze kwekutendeseka kunotenderera mberi kana zviitiko zvekuedza uku zvinogona kuve kune dzimwe mamiriro ezvinhu. Kudzokera ku Schultz et al. (2007) , mumwe angabvunza kana iri pfungwa imwechete-kupa vanhu ruzivo pamusoro pemashandisirwo emagetsi avo muhukama nevezera ravo uye chiratidzo chekuregererwa kwemaitiro (semuenzaniso, maitiro e-emoticon) -inogona kuderedza kushandiswa kwesimba kana yakaitwa nenzira yakasiyana mune imwe nzvimbo yakasiyana. Nokuda kwezvinhu zvakanyatsogadzirirwa zvakanaka uye zvakanyatsogadziriswa, zvinetseka pamusoro pechipimo chekunze ndicho chakanyanya kuoma kugadzirisa. Munguva yakapfuura, nharo idzi pamusoro pechiratidzo chekunze zvisingatauri chimwe chinhu kunze kweboka revanhu vakagara muimba vachiedza kufungidzira zvingave zvakaitika kana nzira dzaive dzichiitwa nenzira yakasiyana, kana kune imwe nzvimbo vakasiyana . Nenzira yakanaka, makore ekugadzira inoita kuti vanotsvakurudza vafambe kupfuura izvi zvisingatauri zvisingatauri uye vanoongorora kunze kwepamutemo.

Nokuti zvabuda kubva kuna Schultz et al. (2007) yakanga iri inonakidza, kambani inonzi Opower yakabatana nemashandiro eUnited States kuti atange kurapwa zvakanyanya. Kubva pakurongwa Schultz et al. (2007) , Simba rakagadzirwa neIndaneti Energy Reports yakanga ine miviri miviri mikuru: imwe inoratidza kushandiswa kwemagetsi kwemhuri kune vavakidzani vavo vane emoticon uye imwe inopa mazano ekuderedza kushandiswa kwesimba (Mufananidzo 4.6). Zvadaro, pamwe chete nevatsvakurudzi, Opower yakashandisa maitiro akaongororwa akaongororwa kuti aongorore mararamiro eMean Energy Reports. Kunyange zvazvo kurapwa mune izvi kuongororwa kwaiwanzopiwa mumuviri-kazhinji kuburikidza neshoko rekare rekunyora-mhinduro yakayerwa uchishandiswa kushandisa zvigadzirwa zvemagetsi munyika (semuenzaniso, mamita emagetsi). Uyezve, pane kungotora ruzivo urwu ruzivo nevanotsvakurudza ruzivo vachishanyira imba imwe neimwe, zviitiko zveWashington zvose zvakaitwa nekubatana nemakambani emagetsi zvichiita kuti vatsvakurudzi vauwane simba rekuverenga. Nokudaro, izvi zvishoma zvemajeri mashandisirwo emunda zvakaendeswa pamwero mukuru pakudhura kwakaderera kunowanikwa.

Mufananidzo 4.6: Imba yeNyika yeMagetsi yaive neChirongwa Chekuenzanisa Kwevanhu uye Action Steps Module. Yakadzorerwa nemvumo kubva kuna Allcott (2011), nhamba 1 ne2.

Mufananidzo 4.6: Imba yeNyika yeMagetsi yaive neChirongwa Chekuenzanisa Kwevanhu uye Action Steps Module. Allcott (2011) nemvumo kubva kuna Allcott (2011) , nhamba 1 ne2.

Mukugadzirisa kwekutanga kweongororo dzinosanganisira mamiriyoni 600 000 kubva panzvimbo dzakasiyana siyana, Allcott (2011) yakawana kuti Home Energy Report yakaderedza kushandiswa kwemagetsi. Mune mamwe mazwi, migumisiro yakawanda kubva kune yakawanda, kudzidza kwakawanda kwakasiyana-siyana kwaive kwakagadzikana zvakafanana nemigumisiro kubva kuna Schultz et al. (2007) . Uyezve, mukutsvakurudza kwakatevera kunosanganisira mamiriyoni masere emamwe misha kubva munzvimbo dzakasiyana-siyana 101, Allcott (2015) zvakare akawana kuti Home Energy Report yakaramba ichideredza kushandiswa kwemagetsi. Izvi zvakakura zvikuru zvekuedza zvakare zvakaratidza chiitiko chitsva chinonakidza chisingagoni kuonekwa mune chero chimwe chekuedza: ukuru hwechiito chakakanganiswa muzviitiko zvekare (chirevo 4.7). Allcott (2015) akafunga kuti kuderera uku kwakaitika nokuti, nekufamba kwenguva, kurapwa kwakashandiswa kune zvakasiyana-siyana zvevatori vechikamu. Kunyanya zvakanyanya, zvishandiso nevanowanikwa mune zvekuchengetedzwa kwezvakatipoteredza zvakangodaro vaitora purogiramu yapfuura, uye vatengi vavo vainyanya kugamuchira kurapwa. Sezvakashandiswa nevashoma vepakati pezvakatipoteredza vakatengesa purogiramu yacho, kubudirira kwayo kwakaratidzika kuderera. Nokudaro, kungofanana nekutsvaga muongorori kunovimbisa kuti boka rekurapa uye rinodzora rakafanana, kushandiswa kwemashoko munzvimbo dzinotsvakurudza kunoita kuti zviyero zvigone kuitika kubva kune rimwe boka revatori vechikamu kune vanhu vazhinji (funga zvakare muchikamu chechitatu pamusoro pekuenzanisa). Kana tsvakurudzo dzekutsvakurudza dzisati dzakatorwa sarudzo, ipapo kujekesa-kunyange kubva pane zvakagadzirirwa uye kuongororwa-kunogona kuoma.

Mufananidzo 4.7: Zviwanikwa zve 111 kuongororwa kunoedza kushanda kweMvura Energy Report pamusoro pemashandisi emagetsi. Pazvivako apo purogiramu yakagamuchirwa gare gare, yaive ine zviduku zvishoma. Allcott (2015) inotaura kuti chikonzero chikuru chemuenzaniso uyu ndeyekuti nzvimbo dzakashambadzirwa nevashambadziri vakagadziriswa ndivo vaizogona kupinda purogiramu yapfuura. Yakagadzirirwa kubva kuna Allcott (2015), chirevo chechitatu.

Mufananidzo 4.7: Zviwanikwa zve 111 kuongororwa kunoedza kushanda kweMvura Energy Report pamusoro pemashandisi emagetsi. Pazvivako apo purogiramu yakagamuchirwa gare gare, yaive ine zviduku zvishoma. Allcott (2015) inotaura kuti chikonzero chikuru chemuenzaniso uyu ndeyekuti nzvimbo dzakashambadzirwa nevashambadziri vakagadziriswa ndivo vaizogona kupinda purogiramu yapfuura. Yakagadzirirwa kubva kuna Allcott (2015) , chirevo chechitatu.

Pamwe chete, izvi 111 zviongorori-10 Allcott (2011) uye 101 Allcott (2015) -zvikamu zvemamiriyoni 8,5 kubva kumativi ose eUnited States. Vanoramba vachiratidza kuti Home Energy Reports inoderedza kushandiswa kwemagetsi kushandiswa, chigumisiro chinotsigira zvitsva zvekutanga zveSchultz uye vashandi vanobva kumisha 300 muCalifornia. Kunze kwekudzokorora mhinduro idzi dzepakutanga, miedzo yekutevera inoratidzawo kuti ukuru hwemugumo unowirirana nenzvimbo. Iyi yezviongorori inofananidzirawo mamwe maviri maonero akawanda pamusoro pechikamu chemajeri mashandisirwo emunda. Kutanga, vatsvakurudzi vachakwanisa kugadzirisa zvinetso pamusoro pekusimbiswa kwekunze apo iyo mari yekuedza miedzo yakaderera, uye izvi zvinogona kuitika kana chigumisiro chave chave chichitaridzwa ne-always-on data system. Nokudaro, zvinoratidza kuti vatsvakurudzi vanofanira kunge vari kutarisira mamwe maitiro anofadza uye anokosha ayo atotonyorwa, uye ezvo zvinogadzira kuongorora pamusoro peiyo inosimudzira inojekesa. Chechipiri, iyi sarudzo yekuyeuchidza inotiyeuchidza kuti dhigiriji yeruzhinji haisi muIndaneti chete; zvinowedzera, ndinotarisira kuti vachave pose pose nemigumisiro yakawanda yakaenzana nemasero munzvimbo yakavakwa.

Mhando ina dzekutendeka-nhamba yekugumisa kugadziriswa, mukati mecheno, kuvaka zvakavimbika, uye kunze kwekugadzirisa-kupa hutano hwepfungwa kuti vabatsire vatsvakurudzi kuongorora kana migumisiro kubva pane imwe tsananguro inotsigira mhedziso yakawanda. Zvichienzaniswa neanorog-age experiments, mumagetsi ekugadzira-makore, inofanira kuva nyore kugadzirisa kutenderwa kwekunze kwechimiro, uye inofanirawo kuva nyore kuisa mukati mvumo. Kune rumwe rutivi, nyaya dzekuvaka zvakajeka zvingangodaro dzive dzakaoma zvikuru mukugadzira-yero-yekare, kuongorora kwemajeri mashizha anosanganisira kushamwaridzana nemakambani.