2.4.2 Saadaalinta iyo nowcasting

Saadaalinta mustaqbalka waa adag tahay, laakiin saadaalinta xaadirka ah waxaa ka hawl yar.

Istaraatijiyad labaad ugu weyn ee ay cilmi isticmaalo xogta dheehidda waxaa hillaadiyo. Saadaalinta mustaqbalka waa sida aadka u adag, laakiin waxa ay noqon kartaa mid cajiib ah oo muhiim u ah go'aan sameeyayaal, haddii ay ka shaqeeyaan shirkadaha ama dawladaha.

Kleinberg et al. (2015) waxay bixisaa laba sheekooyinka in caddeeyo muhiimada ay leedahay oddoroska dhibaatooyinka siyaasad gaar ah. Bal qiyaas mid siyaasad dejiyuhu, anigu waxaan u yeedhi doonaa iyada Anna, kuwaas waxaa soo wajahday abaar iyo waa go'aansado inuu shaqaaleysiiyo Sikh a in la sameeyo qoob ka roob badan si loo kordhiyo fursad roobka. gaare kale siyaasadda, waxaan isaga u yeedhaan doonaa Bob, jirtaa inuu go'aansado inuu qaado dallad ay u shaqeeyaan si ay iska ilaaliyaan qoyan jidka guriga. Anna iyo Bob Labada dhigi kara go'aan fiican haddii ay fahmi cimilada, laakiin waxa ay u baahan tahay in waxyaabo kala duwan la ogaado. Anna waxay u baahan tahay in la fahmo in qoob roobka keena roobka. Bob, ayaa dhanka kale, ma u baahan tahay in la fahmo wax ku saabsan bixinta sababaha; uu u baahan yahay kaliya Saadaasha sax ah. Cilmi Social badanaa waxay diiradda saaraan waxa Kleinberg et al. (2015) soo wac "roob qoob-sida" dhibaatooyin-kuwa diiradda saaraan bixinta sababaha-iyo iska indha dhibaatooyinka siyaasadeed "dallada-sida" in ay yihiin diiradda oddoroska siyaasadda.

Waxaan jeclaan lahaa in ay diiradda saaraan, si kastaba ha ahaatee, on nooc gaar ah oo loo yaqaan oddoroska nowcasting Xarafka dheer oo ka soo jeeda isku "hadda" iyo "oddoroska." Halkii saadaalinta mustaqbalka, nowcasting isku dayo in la saadaaliyo xaadirka ah (Choi and Varian 2012) . In si kale loo dhigo, nowcasting isticmaalaa hababka oddoroska dhibaatooyinka cabbir. Sida oo kale, waa in ay noqon gaar ah faa'iido in ay dawladaha kuwaas oo u baahan tallaabooyin ku habboon oo sax ah oo ku saabsan dalalkooda. Nowcasting ugu cad loo qeexi karaa iyadoo tusaale ahaan ka mid ah Hargabka Isbeddellada Google.

Ka soo qaad in aad dareensan tahay xoogaa hoos cimilada si aad ku qor "dawayn flu" galeen search engine a, heli page a of links in jawaab, ka dibna raaci mid ka mid ah webpage a waxtar leh in. Haddaba Maskaxda hawshan la ciyaaray baxay marka laga eego ee engine raadinta. Daqiiqad kasta, malaayiin weydiimo waxaa uu yimid ka adduunka oo dhan, iyo durdur ah weydiimo-waxa Battelle (2006) waxa uu ugu yeedhay "database ee ujeedooyinka" - siisaa daaqad joogta ah updated galay miyir caalamiga ah ee shaqada. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, jeestay il this macluumaadka galay cabiraada ah baahsanaanta ee hargabka waa ay adag tahay. Si fudud ilaa tirinta tirada weydiimo for "dawayn flu" laga yaabaa in aan si fiican u shaqeeyaan. Ma aha qof kasta uu leeyahay baaritaanka ifilada for daawooyinka hargabka oo aan qof kasta oo goobayaasha for daawooyinka hargabka leeyahay hargabka.

Trick The muhiim ah oo qatar ah ka dambeeya Flu Isbeddellada Google waxay ahayd inuu ka soo leexdo dhibaato cabbirka ah oo wuxuu galay dhibaatada oddoroska ah. Xarumaha The US for Xakamaynta iyo Kahortagga Cudurrada (CDC) wuxuu leeyahay hab socodka hargabka oo ururiya macluumaad ka dhakhaatiirta dalka ku baahsan. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, mid ka mid ah dhibaatada nidaamka CDC this ay tahay waxa jira Artur laba todobaad warbixinta; waqtiga ay qaadato in xogta uu ka soo tagay dhakhaatiirta in la nadiifiyaa, baaraandegi, oo la daabacay. Laakiin, marka cudurka faafa soo baxaya, xafiisyada caafimaadka dadweynaha ma doonayaan in ay ogaadaan inta ay le'eg tahay hargabka waxaa jiray laba todobaad ka hor, ay doonayaan in ay ogaadaan inta ay le'eg tahay hargabka waxaa hadda waa. Dhab ahaantii, in ilo kale oo badan oo dhaqameed xogta bulshada, ka jiraan firaaqo u dhexeeya hirarka xog ururinta iyo Marlon warbixinta. Inta badan ilaha xogta weyn, dhanka kale, had iyo jeer-ku jira (Section 2.3.1.2).

Sidaa darteed, Jeremy Ginsberg iyo asxaabtii (2009) isku dayay in la saadaaliyo data hargabka CDC ka xog raadinta Google. Tani waa tusaale ka mid ah "saadaalinta xaadirka ah" sababta oo ah cilmi-waxay haddana doonayeen inay ku qiyaasto immisa hargabka waxaa hadda waa by saadaalinta mustaqbalka xogta ka CDC, xogta mustaqbalka la qiyaaso la joogo. Isticmaalka waxbarashada mashiinka, waxay isagii doondoonayeen iyada oo 50 million marka la eego kala duwan raadinta si ay u arkaan taas oo inta badan saadaal ah oo ka mid ah macluumaadka hargabka CDC. Ugu dambayntii, waxay heleen set oo ah 45 weydiimo kala duwan oo u muuqatay in ay ugu saadaal ah, iyo natiijooyinka ay ahaayeen kuwo ku wanaagsan yahay, waxay isticmaali kartaa xogta raadinta in la saadaaliyo xogta CDC. Iyada oo ku saleysan ee ka qayb on warqad this, kaas oo lagu daabacay Nature, Flu Isbeddellada Google noqday sheekada ah guusha inta badan soo noqnoqda oo ku saabsan xoogga xogta weyn.

Waxaa jira laba digniinahaa muhiim ah in this guusha muuqata, si kastaba ha ahaatee, iyo fahamka digniinahaa kaa caawin doona inaad qiimeyso iyo samayn oddoroska iyo nowcasting. First, waxqabadka Flu Isbeddellada Google dhab ahayd aan wax badan ka wanaagsan yahay model fudud in ku qiyaastay tirada hargabka ku salaysan extrapolation toosan ka labada cabir ugu dambeeyey ee baahsanaanta hargabka (Goel et al. 2010) . Oo, muddo waqti qaar ka mid ah Hargabka Google rogga ahaa dhab ahaan ka xun hab fudud this (Lazer et al. 2014) . In si kale loo dhigo, Flu Isbeddellada Google la xogta oo dhan, waxbarashada mashiinka, iyo Kombuyuutarada awood ma u xuub iskhexgalida fudud oo si sahlan loo fahmi heuristic. Tani waxay soo jeedinaysaa in marka qiimaynta Saadaasha kasta ama nowcast waxaa muhiim ah inay is barbar dhigaan dhanka ah gundhigga ah.

The digtoonyey labaad oo muhiim ah oo ku saabsan hargabka Isbeddellada Google waa in ay awoodda in la saadaaliyo xogta hargabka CDC waxay ahayd nugul failure muddo-gaaban iyo suuska mudada dheer sababtoo ah miyigii iyo Wareeriyay algorithmic. Tusaale ahaan, inta lagu guda jiro Google Flu Isbeddellada 2009 dillaacay Hargabka Doofaarka u xuub-ka lagu qiyaasay xaddiga hargabka, u badan tahay, sababtoo ah dadka u muuqdaan in ay beddelaan dhaqanka ay search jawaab u cabsi balaaran ee masiibo caalami ah (Cook et al. 2011; Olson et al. 2013) . Waxa intaa dheer in dhibaatooyinkan muddo gaaban, waxqabadka si tartiib tartiib ah yaraaday muddo. Soo ogaanshaha sababaha for this suuska muddo dheer oo ay adag tahay sababtoo ah algorithms search Google waa lahaansho, laakiin waxay u muuqataa in 2011 Google sameeyey isbedel in jeedin lahaa shuruudaha la xiriira search marka dadku raadi calaamado sida "qandho" iyo "qufac" (waxay u muuqanaysaa in habkaani ma aha firfircoon). Ku darista habkaani waa wax gebi ahaanba macquul ah in la sameeyo haddii aad ganacsi search engine a, oo waxay lahayd saamaynta guud baaritaan la xiriira caafimaadka dheeraad ah. Tani waxay u badan tahay in uu guul u ahaa ganacsiga, laakiin waxa sababay Flu Isbeddellada Google in baahsanaanta badan-qiyaasta hargabka (Lazer et al. 2014) .

Nasiib wanaag, kuwaas oo dhibaato Flu Isbeddellada Google waa fixable. Dhab ahaantii, iyadoo la isticmaalayo habab dheeraad ah taxaddar, Lazer et al. (2014) iyo Yang, Santillana, and Kou (2015) ay awoodaan si ay u helaan natiijo ka wanaagsan. Going weerarka, waxaan filaynaa in waxbarashada nowcasting in isku xogta weyn oo cilmi-ururiyey xogta-in isku Readymades Duchamp-style la Michaelangelo-style Custommades-doonaa awood siyaasad-dejiyeyaasha in ay soo saaraan si dhakhso ah oo badan oo sax ah cabirka kuna Xasilay iyo saadaasha mustaqbalka.