kōrero atu

Hangaia tēnei wāhanga te ki kia whakamahia ano te tohutoro, nui atu i ki te pānui me te he kōrero.

• Kupu Whakataki (Wāhanga 4.1)

He maha matatini, me te rauangi pātai e pā ana ki causality i roto i te rangahau pāpori. Hoki te huarahi niu ki causality i runga i te kauwhata causal, kite Pearl (2009) , a mo te huarahi niu e hāngai ana i runga i ngā putanga o ēnei, kite Imbens and Rubin (2015) (me te tāpiritanga hangarau i roto i tenei pene). Hoki te whakarite i waenganui i enei huarahi e rua, kite Morgan and Winship (2014) . Hoki te huarahi ōkawa ki tautuhi i te confounder, kite VanderWeele and Shpitser (2013) .

I roto i te pene, i hanga e ahau he aha te titiro rite te aho kanapa waenganui to tatou kaha ki te hanga whakatau tata causal i raraunga whakamātautau me te whakamātau-kore. I roto i te vairaa mau, whakaaro ahau e he blurrier te puta ke. Hei tauira, tango katoa e paowa ai mate pukupuku noa ahakoa e kore kua matou mahi he whakamātau e whakahaeretia randomized e taruke iwi ki te paowa. No te maimoatanga roa pukapuka pai i runga i te hanga tata causal i raraunga kore-whakamātau kite Rosenbaum (2002) , Rosenbaum (2009) , Shadish, Cook, and Campbell (2001) , ko Dunning (2012) .

Vahe 1 me 2 o Freedman, Pisani, and Purves (2007) whakahere he mārama whakataki ki te rerekētanga i waenganui i ngā, ngā whakahaere, a randomized ngā whakahaere.

Manzi (2012) whakarato he whakataki ātahu me pānui ki te niu taumauri me tauanga o randomized ngā mana. E whakarato ana hoki tauira ngā o te kaha o te tamataraa i roto i te mahi tūturu-ao.

• He aha e ngā? (Wāhanga 4.2)

Casella (2008) , Box, Hunter, and Hunter (2005) , Athey and Imbens (2016b) whakarato talateu pai ki te āhuatanga tauanga o te hoahoa whakamātautau me te tātari. I tua atu, i reira he maimoatanga pai o te whakamahi o ngā i roto i te maha mara rerekē: economics (Bardsley et al. 2009) , Pāpori (Willer and Walker 2007; Jackson and Cox 2013) , hinengaro (Aronson et al. 1989) , Pūtaiao tōrangapū (Morton and Williams 2010) , me te kaupapa here pāpori (Glennerster and Takavarasha 2013) .

Ko maha te faufaa o te whai wāhi kimi (hei tauira, tīpako) i raro i-maiohatia i roto i te rangahau whakamātautau. Heoi, ki te mea he heterogeneous i roto i te taupori i te pānga o te maimoatanga, ka he tino tīpako. Longford (1999) hanga mārama tenei wāhi, ina kaiwhakamana ia mo kairangahau whakaaro o ngā rite te rangahau taupori ki te tīpako kōpeka.

• E rua ngā āhuatanga o ngā: taiwhanga-mara, me te tairitenga-mamati (Wāhanga 4.3)

Te Häiti i te aroaro ahau i waenganui i taiwhanga me te mara ngā Ko te moka māmā. I roto i te meka, kua whakaarohia atu kairangahau typologies atu āmiki, i roto i te hunga ngā e wehe nga momo momo o ngā mara (Harrison and List 2004; Charness, Gneezy, and Kuhn 2013) . I tua atu, i reira e rua atu momo o ngā whakamana e pūtaiao pāpori kore e e pai neatly ki te taiwhanga me mara Häiti:. Ngā rangahau me ngā pāpori ngā Survey e ngā whakamahi i te hanganga o rangahau wā, me te whakatairite urupare ki putanga kē o te taua pātai (e te aroaro etahi ngā rangahau i roto i te Chapter 3); hoki atu i runga i ngā rangahau e kite Mutz (2011) . ngā Social he ngā wahi te maimoatanga he etahi kaupapa pāpori e taea anake te whakatinana e te kāwanatanga. Kei te tata ngā Social ki te aro mātai hōtaka. No te atu i runga i ngā kaupapa here, kite Orr (1998) , Glennerster and Takavarasha (2013) , ko Heckman and Smith (1995) .

He maha o ngā pepa i whakaritea taiwhanga me te mara ngā i roto i te waitara (Falk and Heckman 2009; Cialdini 2009) me te i roto i ngā o ngā putanga o ngā motuhake i roto i te pūtaiao tōrangapū (Coppock and Green 2015) , ohaoha (Levitt and List 2007a; Levitt and List 2007b; Camerer 2011; Al-Ubaydli and List 2013) me te hinengaro (Mitchell 2012) . Jerit, Barabas, and Clifford (2013) tuku he hoahoa rangahau pai mō te whakatairite hua i taiwhanga me te mara ngā.

Āwangawanga e pā ana ki ngā kaiuru te huri to ratou whanonga no te mea e matau ana ratou e te tata e te tahi mau taime i huaina pānga tono kitea ratou, a kua ako ratou i roto i te hinengaro (Orne 1962) me te ohaoha (Zizzo 2009) . Ahakoa te nuinga e pā ana ki ngā taiwhanga, e taea enei taua take meinga raruraru mō ngā mara rite te pai. I roto i te meka, e te tahi mau taime i huaina hoki pānga tono pānga Hawthorne, he wā e ahu i te whakamātau mara, āta nga ngā māramatanga rongonui i timata i roto i te tau 1924 i te Hawthorne Works o te Western Electric Company (Adair 1984; Levitt and List 2011) . Kei te tata ana rua pānga tono me ngā pānga Hawthorn ki te whakaaro o te ine urupare kōrero i roto i te Chapter 2 (kite ano Webb et al. (1966) ).

Te hītori o ngā mara i whakaahuatia i roto i te ohaoha (Levitt and List 2009) , pūtaiao tōrangapū (Green and Gerber 2003; Druckman et al. 2006; Druckman and Lupia 2012) , hinengaro (Shadish 2002) , me te kaupapa here tūmatanui (Shadish and Cook 2009) . Kotahi rohe o pūtaiao pāpori wahi hohoro ka ngā mara rongonui ko te whanaketanga o te ao. Hoki te arotake pai o taua mahi i roto i te ohaoha kite Banerjee and Duflo (2009) , a mo te aromatawai tino kite Deaton (2010) . Hoki te arotake o tenei mahi i roto i te pūtaiao tōrangapū kite Humphreys and Weinstein (2009) . I te pae hopea, te mau tamataraa matatika wāhi ki ngā parae kua tūhuratia i roto i te pūtaiao tōrangapū (Humphreys 2015; Desposato 2016b) me te ohaoha whanaketanga (Baele 2013) .

I roto i te pene, fokotu'u ahau e taea te whakamahi mōhiohio mua maimoatanga-ki te whakapai ake i te pū o ngā pānga maimoatanga tata, engari i reira he etahi tautohe e pā ana ki tenei huarahi: Freedman (2008) , Lin (2013) , ko Berk et al. (2013) ; kite Bloniarz et al. (2016) mō ētahi atu mōhiohio.

• Moving tua atu ngā ohie (Wāhanga 4.4)

kua whiriwhiria e ahau ki te arotahi ki runga i ngā ariā e toru: mana, heterogeneity o pānga maimoatanga, me tikanga. E ingoa rerekē i roto i mara rerekē ēnei ariā. Hei tauira, ahu kaimātai hinengaro ki te neke tua atu ngā ohie na roto i te arotahi ki runga i kaitakawaenga me kaitakawaenga (Baron and Kenny 1986) . riro te whakaaro o kaitakawaenga e te mea karanga ahau tikanga, ka riro te whakaaro o kaiwhakaōrite e te mea karanga ahau mana waho (hei tauira, e te hua o te whakamātautau rerekē ki te i rere i te reira i roto i ngā āhuatanga rerekē) me te heterogeneity o pānga maimoatanga ( hei tauira, ko te pānga nui hoki etahi iwi atu i te tahi atu taata).

Te whakamātautau o Schultz et al. (2007) E whakaatu ana pēhea te pāpori ariā taea te whakamahi ki te hoahoa wawao whai hua. Hoki te tautohe atu whānui e pā ana ki te tūranga o te ariā i roto i te hoahoa wawaotanga tōtika, kite Walton (2014) .

• Mana (Wāhanga 4.4.1)

Nga ariā o te mana ā-me waho i te tuatahi whakaurua i roto i Campbell (1957) . Vakai, Shadish, Cook, and Campbell (2001) mo te hītori ake āmiki me te fakamatala tupato o te tika mutunga tauanga, mana ā-, hanga mana, me te mana waho.

Hoki te tirohanga o ngā take e pā ana ki te mana mutunga tauanga i roto i ngā kite Gerber and Green (2012) (mo te tirohanga pūtaiao pāpori) ko Imbens and Rubin (2015) (mo te tirohanga tauanga). Ētahi take o te mana mutunga tauanga e whakatika āta i ngā mara ipurangi ngā take pērā i ngā tikanga computationally tōtika mō te hanga āputa māia ki raraunga ririki (Bakshy and Eckles 2013) .

Ka taea e mana ā-kia uaua ki te whakarite i roto i ngā mara matatini. Kite, no te tauira, Gerber and Green (2000) , Imai (2005) , ko Gerber and Green (2005) mo te tautohe e pā ana ki te whakatinanatanga o te whakamātau parae matatini e pā ana ki te pōti. Kohavi et al. (2012) me te Kohavi et al. (2013) te whakarato i te whakataki ki te mau tamataraa o te tika wā i roto i ngā mara ipurangi.

Kotahi āwangawanga nui ki te tika ā-ko raruraru ki Tupurangitanga. Ko e founga ki pea kitea raruraru ki te Tupurangitanga ko ki whakataurite te maimoatanga me te mana rōpū i runga i huru kitea. Huaina tenei ahua o te whakarite te te haki toenga. Vakai, Hansen and Bowers (2008) mo te huarahi tauanga ki te taurite haki, a ka kite Mutz and Pemantle (2015) mō āwangawanga e pā ana ki te arowhai toenga. Hei tauira, mā te whakamahi i te pauna tirohia Allcott (2011) i kitea e reira ko etahi taunakitanga e kore i te Tupurangitanga whakatinana tika i roto i te toru o nga ngā i roto i te tahi mau o nga ngā OPower (kite Ripanga 2: pae 2, 6, me 8). No te tahi atu huarahi, kite Imbens and Rubin (2015) , Chapter 21.

Ētahi atu āwangawanga nui e pā ana ki te mana ā te hunga: 1) kotahi-iu hanganga ture-kore, te wahi e kore katoa i roto i te rōpū maimoatanga mau riro te maimoatanga, 2) e rua turu hanganga ture-kore, te wahi e kore katoa i roto i te rōpū maimoatanga e tango te maimoatanga me etahi iwi i roto i te rōpū mana ia farii i te maimoatanga, 3) takanga, te wahi e kore e whanganga putanga mo etahi kaiuru, a 4) raweketia, kei hea ringihia ki runga ki te maimoatanga i te iwi i roto i te huru maimoatanga ki te iwi i roto i te huru mana. A hi'o Gerber and Green (2012) vahe 5, 6, 7, me te 8 mō ake i runga i ia o ēnei take.

No te atu i runga i hangä tika, kite Westen and Rosenthal (2003) , me te hoki atu ki runga ki te tika hangä i roto i ngā puna raraunga nui, Lazer (2015) me te Chapter 2 o tenei pukapuka.

Kotahi āhuatanga o te mana waho ko te tautuhinga wahi whakamatau te wawaotanga te. Allcott (2015) whakarato te maimoatanga ariā, me te wheako tupato o te rītaha kōwhiringa pae. Kei te kōrero hoki tenei take i roto i Deaton (2010) . I tua atu ki te te tāruaruatia i roto i ngā pae maha, te wawaotanga Home Energy Report kua hoki kua takitahi ako e ngā rōpū rangahau maha (hei tauira, Ayres, Raseman, and Shih (2013) ).

• Heterogeneity o pānga maimoatanga (Wāhanga 4.4.2)

Hoki te tirohanga pai o te heterogeneity o pānga maimoatanga i roto i ngā mara, kite Chapter 12 o Gerber and Green (2012) . Hoki talateu ki heterogeneity o pānga maimoatanga i roto i te mau tamataraa hauora, kite Kent and Hayward (2007) , Longford (1999) , ko Kravitz, Duan, and Braslow (2004) . Heterogeneity o pānga maimoatanga te tikanga arotahi ki runga i ngā rerekētanga e hāngai ana i runga i ngā āhuatanga i mua maimoatanga-. Ki te hiahia i roto i te heterogeneity i runga i ngā putanga pou-maimoatanga koutou, ka e hiahiatia ana approachs matatini ake pērā i te raupapatanga tino (Frangakis and Rubin 2002) ; kite Page et al. (2015) mō te arotake.

He maha kairangahau tata te heterogeneity o pānga maimoatanga te whakamahi i regression rārangi, engari whakawhirinaki tikanga hou i runga i te ako mīhini, hei tauira Green and Kern (2012) , Imai and Ratkovic (2013) , Taddy et al. (2016) , ko Athey and Imbens (2016a) .

He etahi ore te e pā ana ki ngā kitenga o te heterogeneity o pānga no o maha raruraru rite, me te "ika." He te whānuitanga o ngā huarahi tauanga e nehenehe e tauturu āwangawanga wāhitau e pā ana ki te whakarite maha (Fink, McConnell, and Vollmer 2014; List, Shaikh, and Xu 2016) . Kotahi huarahi ki āwangawanga e pā ana ki "ika" Ko-rēhita mua, kei te hoko i piki noa i roto i te hinengaro (Nosek and Lakens 2014) , pūtaiao tōrangapū (Humphreys, Sierra, and Windt 2013; Monogan 2013; Anderson 2013; Gelman 2013; Laitin 2013) , me te ohaoha (Olken 2015) .

I roto i te ako o Costa and Kahn (2013) i taea ki te kia hono ki te pārongo tatau anake e pā ana ki te hawhe o te whare i roto i te whakamātautau. Kaipānui paanga i roto i nga kōrero, me ngā raruraru ka taea ki tenei tātaritanga kia tirohia ki te pepa taketake.

• Tikanga (Wāhanga 4.4.3)

He nui mīharo tikanga, engari tahuri atu ratou ki te kia tino uaua ki te ako. Pā ana rangahau e pā ana ki tikanga tata ki te ako o kaiwhakaako i roto i te hinengaro (engari kite ano VanderWeele (2009) mo te whakarite pū i waenganui i nga whakaaro e rua). Huarahi tauanga ki te kimi i huarahi, pērā i te huarahi whakawhanakehia i roto i te Baron and Kenny (1986) he tino noa,. Kia aroha mai, huri i te reira i roto i taua aua tukanga whakawhirinaki i runga i te tahi mau whakapae kaha (Bullock, Green, and Ha 2010) , me te mamae, no te reira he tikanga maha, rite ai tetahi e ti'aturi i roto i te mau huru e rave rahi (Imai and Yamamoto 2013; VanderWeele and Vansteelandt 2014) . Imai et al. (2011) me te Imai and Yamamoto (2013) whakahere etahi tikanga tauanga ake. I tua atu, VanderWeele (2015) tuku he maimoatanga pukapuka-roa ki te maha o ngā hua nui, tae atu ki te huarahi whānui ki te tātari tūtohutanga.

arotahi te huarahi motuhake i runga i ngā e whakamātau ki te rāwekeweke i te huarahi tika (hei tauira, hoatu kaipuke huaora C). Kia aroha mai, i roto i ngā tautuhinga pūtaiao pāpori maha i reira e maha tikanga maha, me te he uaua ki te hoahoa maimoatanga e huri i tetahi i waho te huri i te era atu. Ētahi huarahi ki experimentally e whakaahuatia tikanga liliu i Imai, Tingley, and Yamamoto (2013) , Ludwig, Kling, and Mullainathan (2011) , ko Pirlott and MacKinnon (2016) .

I te pae hopea, i hoki tikanga he hītori roa i roto i te rapunga whakaaro o te pūtaiao rite whakaahuatia e Hedström and Ylikoski (2010) .

• Mā te taiao ngā (Wāhanga 4.5.1.1)

Hoki atu i runga i te whakamahi o rangahau reta me rangahau tātari ki te ine i whakahāwea kite Pager (2007) .

• Hanga koutou ake whakamātau (Wāhanga 4.5.1.2)

Te ara tino noa ki te kimi ngā kaiuru ki ngā e hanga e koe he Amazon Mechanical Turk (MTurk). No te mea ki te MTurk ka tāwhai i ngā āhuatanga o ngā-te aufauraa i taiwhanga tuku iho iwi whakaoti ngā mahi e kore ratou e mahi mō te kairangahau free-maha kua timata kē te whakamahi i Turkers (nga kaimahi i runga i MTurk) rite kaiuru i roto i ngā kaupapa tangata ngā hua i roto i tere, me te iti kohinga atu tuku iho raraunga ngā i runga i-wānanga taiwhanga (Paolacci, Chandler, and Ipeirotis 2010; Horton, Rand, and Zeckhauser 2011; Mason and Suri 2012; Rand 2012; Berinsky, Huber, and Lenz 2012) .

He logistical te kaha nui o ngā ki ngā kaiuru haina i MTurk: tukua ratou kairangahau ki te kimi ngā kaiuru hohoro a rite hiahiatia. Notemea e taea ngā taiwhanga tango wiki ki te rere a taea ngā mara te tango i marama ki te whakaturia-ake, ka taea e ngā ki ngā kaiuru haina i MTurk kia rere i roto i nga ra. Hei tauira, Berinsky, Huber, and Lenz (2012) i ​​taea ki te kimi kaupapa 400 i roto i te ra kotahi ki te whai wāhi i roto i tētahi whakamātau 8 meneti. I tua atu, e taea te haina enei kaiuru mō tata tetahi whakaaro (tae atu ki ngā rangahau, me te mahi tahi papatipu, pera kōrero i roto i te pene 3, a 5). tikanga o tēnei humarie o te kimi e kairangahau taea rere raupapatanga o ngā hāngai ana i roto i te monoraa tere.

I mua i whakatū i MTurk kaiuru mo koutou ake ngā, i reira e wha nga mea nui ki te mohio. Tuatahi, he maha kairangahau i te ore te kore-motuhake o ngā whai wāhi Turkers. No te mea e kore te mea motuhake tenei ore te, he uaua ki te haukoti i te taunakitanga. Heoi, i muri i te maha o nga tau o ako te whakamahi i Turkers, tatou e nehenehe i teie nei e faaoti e kore he tika rawa tenei māna. He maha rangahau whakatairite i te tatauranga o Turkers ki ētahi atu taupori me te maha rangahau whakatairite hua o ngā ki Turkers ki nga hua i te tahi atu taupori. Homai tenei mahi katoa, whakaaro ahau e te ara pai mo ki a koe te whakaaro e pā ana ki reira ko e Turkers ko te tauira haratau whaitake, nui rite ngā ākonga engari paku atu kanorau (Berinsky, Huber, and Lenz 2012) . Ko te kupu, pera me ngā ākonga e te taupori whaitake mo etahi engari e kore rangahau whakamātautau katoa, ko te taupori whaitake mo etahi engari e kore rangahau katoa Turkers. Ki te haere koe ki te mahi ki Turkers, ka hanga te reira tikanga ki te pānui i tokomaha o enei rangahau whakatairite me te matau ratou onäianei.

Tuarua, kua whakawhanakehia kairangahau pai-mahi mō te whakanui ake tika ā-o ngā Turk, a kia ako koe e pā ana ki a te whai enei pai-mahi (Horton, Rand, and Zeckhauser 2011; Mason and Suri 2012) . Hei tauira, kei te ākina kairangahau whakamahi Turkers ki te whakamahi i screeners ki te tango kaiuru ta'etokanga (Berinsky, Margolis, and Sances 2014; Berinsky, Margolis, and Sances 2016) (engari kite ano DJ Hauser and Schwarz (2015b) me DJ Hauser and Schwarz (2015a) ). Ki te kore koutou e tango kaiuru ta'etokanga, ka taea te horoi tetahi pānga o te maimoatanga i na roto i te haruru whakaurua i ngā kaiuru ta'etokanga, a i roto i te mahi e taea e nui te maha o ngā kaiuru ta'etokanga. I roto i te whakamātautau o Huber me hoa (2012) rahua screeners taketake aro e pā ana ki te 30% o ngā kaiuru. Ko tētahi atu raruraru noa ki Turkers he kaiuru kore-kuware (Chandler et al. 2015) .

A toru, whanaunga ki etahi atu momo o te ngā mamati, ngā MTurk taea kore āwhatatia; Stewart et al. (2015) whakatau tata e i tetahi wa i homai i reira e anake e pā ana ki 7,000 iwi i runga i MTurk.

I te pae hopea, kia mohio koutou e MTurk ko te hapori me ona ake ture, me tikanga (Mason and Suri 2012) . I roto i te ara ano e e tamata koe ki te kitea i roto i pā ana ki te ahurea o te whenua i haere koutou wahi ki te rere koutou ngā, kia tamata koe ki te kitea i roto i atu e pā ana ki te ahurea me ngā tikanga o Turkers (Salehi et al. 2015) . Na, kia mohio koutou e ka te Turkers kia korero e pā ana ki to koutou whakamātau ki te meatia e koutou te tahi mea tano ore unethical ranei (Gray et al. 2016) .

MTurk Ko te ara watea mīharo ki te kimi kaiuru ki o koutou ngā, ahakoa he taiwhanga-rite ratou, pērā i Huber, Hill, and Lenz (2012) , ranei atu mara-rite, pērā i Mason and Watts (2009) , Goldstein, McAfee, and Suri (2013) , Goldstein et al. (2014) , Horton and Zeckhauser (2016) , ko Mao et al. (2016) .

• Hanga koutou ake hua (Wāhanga 4.5.1.3)

Ki te whakaaro koe o feinga ke te waihanga koutou ake hua, tūtohu ahau e lau koe te tohutohu tapaea e te rōpū MovieLens i Harper and Konstan (2015) . He matauranga matua i to ratou wheako he e hoki ia kaupapa angitu reira he, he tokomaha maha rahunga. Hei tauira, whakarewahia te rōpū MovieLens ētahi atu hua pērā i GopherAnswers i rahunga oti (Harper and Konstan 2015) . Ko tētahi atu tauira o te kairangahau te oreraa e ngana ki te hanga i te hua ko te tamataraa o Edward Castronova ki te hanga i te kēmu ipurangi huaina Arden. Ahakoa $ 250,000 i roto i te pūtea, ko te kaupapa he pikitia (Baker 2008) . Kaupapa rite GopherAnswers me Arden e nui atu noa atu kaupapa rite MovieLens kāore. I te pae hopea, no te ahau i mea e kore ahau i mohio o tetahi atu kairangahau e i hanga angitū hua mō te tamataraa korerotia konei ko toku paearu: whakamahi 1) kaiuru te hua mo o te mea whakarato reira ratou (hei tauira, e kore e utua e ratou, me te kore e ratou tūao te āwhina pūtaiao) me 2) kua te hua kua whakamahia hoki neke atu i te kotahi whakamātau motuhake (arā, e kore te taua whakamātau wa maha ki rerekē puna kaiuru). Ki te matau ana koe o te tahi atu mau hi'oraa, kia mohio ahau.

• Partner ki te kaha (Wāhanga 4.5.2)

Kua rongo ahau i te whakaaro o te Hauwhā Porohita o Pasteur kōrero pinepine i kamupene hangarau, a tauturu te reira whakarite tautooraa rangahau i Google (Spector, Norvig, and Petrov 2012) .

Bond me ako hoa ' (2012) whakamātau hoki ki te kitea te pānga o ēnei maimoatanga i runga i te hoa o te hunga e riro ia ratou. No te mea o te hoahoa o te whakamātau, he uaua ki te kitea cleanly enei spillovers; kia kite kaipānui hiahia Bond et al. (2012) mo te aparauraa atu tino. Tenei whakamātautau Ko wāhanga o te iho roa o te ngā i roto i te pūtaiao tōrangapū i runga i tautooraa ki te whakatenatena pōti (Green and Gerber 2015) . Ko noa ēnei ngā whiwhi-waho-te-pōti i roto i te wahi no te mea he ratou i roto i te Hauwhā Porohita o Pasteur. Ko, i reira e rave rahi taata e hihiri ki te whakapiki ake i pōti me te pōti e taea e te whanonga ngā ki te whakamātau i ariā atu whānui e pā ana ki te huringa whanonga, me te mana pāpori.

Kua whakaratohia ētahi atu kairangahau tohutohu e pā ana ki te rere ngā mara ki rōpū hoa pērā i ngā rōpū tōrangapū, NGO, me pakihi (Loewen, Rubenson, and Wantchekon 2010; List 2011; Gueron 2002) . Kua whakaekea etahi tohutohu e pā ana ki te pehea e taea hononga ki ngä whakahaere pānga whakaaro rangahau (Green, Calfano, and Aronow 2014; King et al. 2007) . Taea hoki Partnership arahi ki ngā pātai matatika (Humphreys 2015; Nickerson and Hyde 2016) .

• Tohutohu hoahoa (Wāhanga 4.6)

Ki te haere koe te hanga i tētahi mahere tātaritanga i mua i te rere koutou whakamātau, fokotu'u ahau e tīmata koe na roto i te tai'oraa i aratohu pūrongo. Te wehe atu (Consolidated Paerewa Pūrongo o tamataraa) aratohu i whakawhanakehia i roto i te rongoā (Schulz et al. 2010) , ka whakarerekētia mō te rangahau pāpori (Mayo-Wilson et al. 2013) . Kua tētahi huinga e pā ana o ngā aratohu kua whakawhanakehia e te ētita o te Journal o whakamātautau Political Science (Gerber et al. 2014) (kite ano Mutz and Pemantle (2015) me te Gerber et al. (2015) ). I te pae hopea, Kua whakawhanakehia ngā aratohu pūrongo kua i roto i te hinengaro (Group 2008) , ka kite ano hoki Simmons, Nelson, and Simonsohn (2011) .

Ki te hanga koe he mahere tātaritanga kia whakaaro koutou rēhita-mua te reira no te mea ka nui ake i te māia i ētahi atu i roto i o koutou hua mua rēhita-. I tua atu, ki te kei te mahi koe ki te hoa, ka whakawhāiti te reira kaha o tou hoa ki te huri i te tātari i muri i te kitenga o nga hua. Kei te haere i mua i-rēhita piki noa i roto i te hinengaro (Nosek and Lakens 2014) , pūtaiao tōrangapū (Humphreys, Sierra, and Windt 2013; Monogan 2013; Anderson 2013; Gelman 2013; Laitin 2013) , me te ohaoha (Olken 2015) .

I te hanga tou mahere mua tātaritanga-kia koutou mōhio e whakamahi hoki etahi kairangahau inenga me huarahi e pā ana ki te whakapai ake i te pū o te pānga maimoatanga tata, a reira ko etahi tautohe e pā ana ki tenei huarahi: Freedman (2008) , Lin (2013) , a Berk et al. (2013) ; kite Bloniarz et al. (2016) mō ētahi atu mōhiohio.

Kei te aroaro hoki tohutohu hoahoa āta mō ngā āpure ipurangi i roto i Konstan and Chen (2007) ko Chen and Konstan (2015) .

• Waihanga kore raraunga utu te ana'iraa (Wāhanga 4.6.1)

Hoki atu i runga i nga ngā MusicLab, kite Salganik, Dodds, and Watts (2006) , Salganik and Watts (2008) , Salganik and Watts (2009b) , Salganik and Watts (2009a) , ko Salganik (2007) . No te atu i runga i toa-tango-katoa hokohoko, kite Frank and Cook (1996) . No te atu i runga i waimarie untangling me te pūkenga atu te tikanga, kite Mauboussin (2012) , Watts (2012) , ko Frank (2016) .

Tera atu ano tetahi huarahi ki te whakakore utu kaiuru e kia whakamahi kairangahau ki tūpato: māperetanga. I roto i te maha ngā mara ipurangi waiwai e tuhia kaiuru ki ngā, me te kore utua. Tauira o tenei huarahi ngā Restivo me a van de Rijt (2012) whakamātau i runga i utu i roto i te Wikipedia ko Bond me o hoa (2012) whakamātau ki te akiaki i te iwi ki te pōti. e kore e ēnei ngā tino whai kore utu tāupe, to ratou kore utu tāupe ki kairangahau. Ahakoa he tino iti te utu o tokomaha o enei ngā ki ia kaiuru, whakaritea utu iti he maha nui o ngā kaiuru hohoro taea te tāpiri i runga. maha kairangahau rere nui ngā ipurangi whakatika te faufaa o pānga maimoatanga pea, iti na roto i te mea e taea enei pānga iti hei nui, ka tono ki te iwi maha. E pā ana te taua whakaaro tangohia ki utu e tangohia kairangahau i runga i ngā kaiuru. Ki te koutou ngā kotahi miriona iwi ki te ururua kotahi meneti, e kore te mea tino kino ki tetahi tangata ngā te whakamātautau, engari i roto i te whakahiato kua hemo te reira tata e rua nga tau e o te wā.

Ko tētahi atu huarahi ki te hanga kore utu utu tāupe ki kaiuru ko ki te whakamahi i te rota, he huarahi e kua hoki kua whakamahia i roto i te rangahau rangahau (Halpern et al. 2011) . I te pae hopea, no te atu e pā ana ki te hoahoa kite pārekareka kaiwhakamahi-wheako Toomim et al. (2011) .

• Whakakapi, Tahia, a Whakaititia (Wāhanga 4.6.2)

Tenei ko nga whakamāramatanga taketake o te R toru, i Russell and Burch (1959) :

"Tikanga Whakakapinga te whakakapi mo te mohio kararehe ora teitei o te rauemi insentient. Whakaiti tikanga whakaiti i roto i te tau o te kararehe whakamahia ki te whiwhi mōhiohio o te moni i homai, me te pū. Whakamahine tikanga tetahi hekenga i roto i te pā pakeke o ngā tukanga ati tono ki aua kararehe e tonu i ki te whakamahi ranei. "

Te toru R o e whakaaro ahau e kore e takahi i te mau parau tumu matatika whakaahuatia i roto i te Chapter 6. Engari, ko ratou he putanga atu whakawhānuitia tetahi o aua parau tumu-i atawhai-mō te tautuhinga o ngā tangata.

A, no te whakaaro contagion aronganui, i reira e toru nga take kore-matatika ki te pupuri i roto i te ngakau, ina te whakamārama i tenei whakamātau. Tuatahi, ehara i te mea mārama pehea nga kōrero tūturu o te whakamātau hono ki nga kereme ariā; i roto i te kupu atu, i reira he pātai e pā ana ki hangä mana. Ehara i te mea mārama e te tatau kupu pai, me te kino e mau te tohu pai o te āhua aronganui o ngā kaiuru no 1) ehara i te mea mārama e nga kupu e tuku iwi e te tohu pai o ratou kare me 2) ehara i te mea mārama e taea ki te ļa lelei kare te ngā tikanga tātaritanga mana'oi e nga kairangahau whakamahia ko (Beasley and Mason 2015; Panger 2016) . I roto i te mau parau te tahi atu, i reira ai kia he mehua kino o te tohu rītaha. Tuarua, parau te hoahoa me te tātaritanga o te whakamātau tatou kahore e pā ana ki i te nuinga nei pānga (arā, i reira he kahore tātari o heterogeneity o pānga maimoatanga) me he aha kia te huarahi. I roto i tenei take, i te kairangahau rota o ngā mōhiohio e pā ana ki te kaiuru, engari i tino tukinotia ratou rite widget i te tātari. A toru, ko iti rawa te rahi pānga i roto i tenei whakamātau; te rerekētanga i waenganui i nga tikanga maimoatanga me te mana kei pā ana ki 1 i roto i te 1,000 kupu. I roto i to ratou pepa, kia te take e he nui te pānga o tenei rahi no te uru rau o mirioni o te iwi ratou News Whangaia ia ra Kramer me hoa. I roto i te mau parau te tahi atu, tautohe ratou e ara pānga e te hunga iti mō ia tangata e nui i roto i te töpü ratou. Ahakoa, ki te i koe ki te farii i tenei tautohe, ko te tonu reira e kore e mārama ki te he nui te pānga o tenei rahi e pā ana ki te pātai pūtaiao atu whānui e pā ana ki contagion aronganui. Hoki atu i runga i te āhuatanga i reira e nui ngā pānga iti kite Prentice and Miller (1992) .

I roto i ngā o te R tuatahi (Whakakapinga), te whakatairite i te contagion whakamātautau aronganui (Kramer, Guillory, and Hancock 2014) me te contagion aronganui whakamātautau tūturu (Coviello et al. 2014) tuku etahi haapiiraa whānui e pā ana ki te hokohoko-kētanga whai wāhi ki neke i ngā ki ngā taiao (me ētahi atu huarahi rite mo taua ngana ki te fakafuofua'i 'ngā i roto i te raraunga kore-whakamātau, kite Chapter 2). I tua atu ki te painga matatika, whakawhiti i te whakamātau ki rangahau kore-whakamātau taea hoki ngā kairangahau ki te ako maimoatanga e te hunga ratou logistically taea ki te tohatoha. mai ēnei painga matatika, me te logistical i te utu, Heoi. Ki te ngā taiao kairangahau i iti mana i runga i nga mea, ano he kimi o ngā kaiuru, Tupurangitanga, me te āhua o te maimoatanga. Hei tauira, kotahi herenga o ua rite te maimoatanga he e reira e rua e faarahi mauritau, me te heke pöuri. I roto i te ako whakamātautau, Heoi, i taea ki te whakarite mauritau me te pöuri takitahi Kramer me hoa.

Te huarahi ngā whakamahia e Coviello et al. (2014) i whakawhānuitia atu i roto i Coviello, Fowler, and Franceschetti (2014) . Hoki te kupu whakataki ki taurangi mauhaa kite Angrist and Pischke (2009) (iti iho ōkawa) ranei Angrist, Imbens, and Rubin (1996) (atu ​​ōkawa). Hoki te aro haehae taetuí o taurangi mauhaa kite Deaton (2010) , a mo te introduction ki taurangi mauhaa ki mea ngoikore (ua ko te mea ngoikore), kite Murray (2006) .

More te tikanga, he whakataki pai ki ngā taiao ko Dunning (2012) , ko Rosenbaum (2002) , Rosenbaum (2009) , ko Shadish, Cook, and Campbell (2001) whakahere whakaaro pai e pā ana ki whakatau tata ngā pānga causal kahore ngā.

I roto i ngā o te rua o nga R (Whakapainga), i reira e pūtaiao, me te logistical hokohoko-kētanga ka whakaaro te huri i te hoahoa o te contagion aronganui i ārai pou ki boosting pou. Hei tauira, kia mau ai ki te take e hanga te whakatinanatanga hangarau o te Feed News ko reira nui māmā ki te mahi i te whakamātau ki ārai pou, nui atu i te whakamātautau ki boosting pou (mōhio e taea te whakamātau ki ārai pou kia whakatinana ano he apa i runga i tihi o te pūnaha News Feed, kahore tetahi hinaaro no te whakarerenga ketanga o te pūnaha e whāriki ana). Pūtaiao, Heoi, ko te ariā whakatutukitia e te whakamātautau i kore mārama whakaaro kotahi hoahoa i runga i te tahi atu.

Kia aroha mai, e kore ahau e mohio o te rangahau nui mua e pā ana ki te hua whanaunga o ārai me te boosting ihirangi i roto i te Whāngai News. Ano, e kore i ahau i kite nui rangahau e pā ana ki te whakamahine maimoatanga ki te hanga a ratou iti kino; kotahi okotahi ko Jones and Feamster (2015) , e whai whakaaro te take o te inenga o te aukatinga Ipurangi (he kaupapa ahau aparau i roto i te Pene 6 i roto i te hononga ki te ako Encore (Burnett and Feamster 2015; Narayanan and Zevenbergen 2015) ).

I roto i ngā o te toru o nga R (Tuhinga), he whakataki pai ki te tātari te mana tuku iho ko Cohen (1988) . taea te whakauru covariates mua-maimoatanga i roto i te wā hoahoa me te wā tātaritanga o ngā; Chapter 4 o Gerber and Green (2012) whakarato te introduction pai ki huarahi e rua, ko Casella (2008) whakarato te maimoatanga ake i roto i-hohonu. Kei te nuinga i huaina Techniques e whakamahi tenei mōhiohio mua maimoatanga-i roto i te Tupurangitanga rānei āraia whakaaro whakamātautau tauira whakamātautau papanga (e kore te te kupu e whakamahia ana ngā puta noa hapori) ranei; Kei te hohonu ana enei tikanga ki nga tikanga tīpako papanga kōrero i roto i te Chapter 3. Hi'o Higgins, Sävje, and Sekhon (2016) hoki atu i runga i te whakamahi i enei whakaaro i roto i ngā nui. Taea hoki te whakauru covariates mua-maimoatanga i roto i te wā tātari. McKenzie (2012) tūhura te rerekētanga-i roto i-rerekētanga huarahi ki te tātari i ngā āpure i roto i te kōrero nui. Vakai, Carneiro, Lee, and Wilhelm (2016) mo ake i runga i te hokohoko-kētanga i waenga i ngā huarahi rerekē ki te whakapiki ake i pū i roto i whakatau tata o ngā pānga maimoatanga. I te pae hopea, no te whakatau mehemea ki te tamata ki ngā covariates mua maimoatanga-i hoahoa tātaritanga ranei te atamira (ranei e rua), i reira he he torutoru āhuatanga ki te whakaaro. I roto i te tautuhinga i reira e hiahia ana ngā kairangahau ki te whakaatu e kore e ratou "hī" (Humphreys, Sierra, and Windt 2013) , mā te whakamahi i covariates mua maimoatanga-i roto i te wā hoahoa e taea e āwhina (Higgins, Sävje, and Sekhon 2016) . I roto i ngā āhuatanga i reira tae raupapa kaiuru, ngā mara rawa ipurangi, mā te whakamahi i ngā mōhiohio i mua maimoatanga-i roto i te wā hoahoa kia uaua logistically, kite hoki tauira Xie and Aurisset (2016) .

He mea utu tāpiri i te moka o te pūmanawa e pā ana ki te aha e taea e kia nui atu whai hua rerekētanga-i roto i-rerekētanga atu rerekētanga-i roto i-tikanga. He maha ngā putanga ipurangi i whawhai nui rawa (kite hei tauira, Lewis and Rao (2015) me te Lamb et al. (2015) ) me he ngā pūmau i runga i te wā. I roto i tenei take, ka whai whawhai nui iti te score huringa, te whakanui ake i te kaha o te whakamātautau tauanga. Kotahi take tenei whakatata kore te whakamahia atu pinepine he e mua ki te ao mamati kihai i reira noa ki te whai putanga mua maimoatanga-. He ara atu raima ki te whakaaro e pā ana ki reira ko te ki te whakaaro i te whakamātau ki te whanganga ranei te mahi mahi motuhake ai mate taimaha. Ki te mahi koe i te rerekētanga-i roto i-tikanga huarahi, ka whai koutou tata rerekētanga e haere mai ana i te rerekētanga i roto i nga kohatu pauna i roto i te taupori. Ki te mahi koe i te huarahi rerekētanga-i roto i-rerekētanga, Heoi, e rerekētanga ka puta noa i roto i nga pauna tangata tangohia a taea e koe te ngāwari ake te kitea i te rerekētanga meinga e te maimoatanga.

Ko e founga mahu'inga ki te whakaiti i te maha o ngā kaiuru i roto i to koutou whakamātautau ko ki te whakahaere i te tātari mana, i taea e kua meatia Kramer me hoa i runga i te rahi pānga kitea i te whakamātautau māori e Coviello et al. (2014) ranei mua rangahau kore-whakamātau e Kramer (2012) (i roto i te meka he mahi i te mutunga o tenei pene enei). Fakatokanga'i e tenei whakamahi o te tātari mana ko te bit rerekē atu angamaheni. I roto i te tairitenga tau, tikanga i kairangahau tātari mana ki te kia e kore i iti rawa ratou ako (arā, i raro i-Powered). Na, Heoi, kia mahi kairangahau tātari mana ki te kia e kore he nui rawa to ratou ako (arā, i runga i-Powered).

I te pae hopea, whakaaro ahau te tāpiri i te wha o R: Repurpose. Ko, ki te kitea kairangahau ratou ki raraunga atu whakamātau atu i hiahia ratou ki te whakatutuki o ratou pātai rangahau taketake, kia repurpose ratou nga raraunga ki te ui pātai hou. Hei tauira, whakaaro e whakamahia Kramer me hoa i te rerekētanga-i roto i-rerekētanga Estimator ka kitea ratou ki atu raraunga atu e hiahiatia ana ki te whakatutuki i ō rātou pātai rangahau. Engari i te kore whakamahi i te raraunga ki te whānuitanga hope, i taea kua ako e ratou te rahi o te pānga ano te mahi ki te mua-maimoatanga faaiteraa aronganui. Just rite Schultz et al. (2007) i kitea i te rerekē mō te marama me te taimaha kaiwhakamahi te pānga o te maimoatanga, pea i rerekē mō te iwi nei i tiaki kē ki te tuku hari (pouri ranei) karere te pānga o te Whāngai News. Repurposing taea arahi ki "ika" (Humphreys, Sierra, and Windt 2013) me "p-hacking" (Simmons, Nelson, and Simonsohn 2011) , engari enei e te nuinga addressable ki te huinga o te pūrongo faitotonu (Simmons, Nelson, and Simonsohn 2011) , i mua i rēhitatanga- (Humphreys, Sierra, and Windt 2013) , me ngā tikanga ako mīhini e ngana ki te karo i runga i-tikanga.